Edgardo Ruggiero

In early 1984, several members of the Fund's Executive Board proposed that the Fiscal Affairs Department of the Fund conduct a comparative study of trends in government social expenditures, with particular attention to the implications of demographic trends in the industrial countries. A number of issues were of particular interest. What was likely to be the impact of the aging of the populations of the industrial countries on their outlays for social expenditures? Would diminished outlays for education offset increased outlays for pensions and medical care and what would be the impact on the share of social outlays in total output? What was the likely time pattern of evolution of social expenditures and would this be a significant factor to consider in the formulation of fiscal policy in the present? At the same time, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was in the process of completing a report that examined the factors underlying the evolution of social expenditures since 1960 in the OECD countries, with projections on the likely growth of social expenditure through 1990. The Fund study can be viewed as a complement to the OECD report, as it evaluates the impact of current demographic trends over the longer time frame during which the demographic structure will most demonstrably change. The focus is limited to the seven major industrial countries.

"This Special Issues paper examines the microeconomic characteristics, macroeconomic consequences, and policy challenges of labor emigration and remittances in Moldova. Drawing on household survey data, it attempts to explain why Moldovan workers go abroad and how their remittances are used. With this background, the paper provides insights into policy challenges of coping with, and maximizing benefits from, international labor mobility and the large inflows of remittances."--Preface, pg vii.

Fiscal decentralization is becoming a pressing issue in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting demands for a greater local voice in spending decisions and efforts to strengthen social cohesion. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to distill the lessons for an effective fiscal decentralization reform, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects. The main findings for sub-Saharan African countries that have decentralized, based on an empirical analysis and four case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda), are as follows: • Determinants and effectiveness: Empirical results suggest that (1) the major driving forces behind fiscal decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa include efforts to defuse ethnic conflicts, the initial level of income, and the urban-ization rate, whereas strength of democracy is not an important determi-nant for decentralization; and (2) decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with higher growth in the presence of stronger institutions. • Spending assignments: The allocation of spending across levels of gov-ernment in the four case studies is broadly consistent with best practice. However, in Uganda, unlike in the other three case studies, subnational governments have little flexibility to make spending decisions as a result of a deconcentrated rather than a devolved system of government. • Own revenue: The assignment of taxing powers is broadly in line with best practice in the four case studies, with the bulk of subnational revenue coming from property taxes and from fees for local services. However, own revenues are a very small fraction of subnational spending, reflecting weak cadaster systems and a high level of informality in the economy.

(2005). Migration and Remittances. Problems of Economic Transition: Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 54-83.

This paper examines the constraints that negative externalities (i.e., smuggling from a large neighbor) impose on the application of automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms.It is often recommended to establish an automatic price adjustment mechanism to reduce fuel subsidy expenditures, but this approach may not work in the presence of these externalities.The paper illustrates the constraints by examining the case of Nigeria, a major oil exporter that subsidizes gasoline, and that of Togo, an oil importer and neighbor of Nigeria.It finds that the price differential between formal prices in Togo and Nigeria is the main driver of changes in formal sector gasoline consumption.Specifically, the lower the formal price in Nigeria, the higher is smuggling from Nigeria to Togo, and the lower the tax base in Togo.The econometric results suggest that, unless the real economy is performing very well, increases in pump prices in Togo are likely to erode the tax base, unless there are greater border controls.The unintended consequences of Nigeria's pricing policies are the constraint they impose on fuel pricing policies of its neighbors and the subsidy Nigeria transfers to them (equivalent to at least 3 percent of Togo's GDP in 2011), three-quarters of which was captured by smugglers in 2011, while one-quarter enhanced consumers surplus through lower gasoline prices.