Timothy D. Weaver

Cranial morphology is widely used to reconstruct evolutionary relationships, but its reliability in reflecting phylogeny and population history has been questioned. Some cranial regions, particularly the face and neurocranium, are believed to be influenced by the environment and prone to convergence. Others, such as the temporal bone, are thought to reflect more accurately phylogenetic relationships. Direct testing of these hypotheses was not possible until the advent of large genetic data sets. The few relevant studies in human populations have had intriguing but possibly conflicting results, probably partly due to methodological differences and to the small numbers of populations used. Here we use three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometrics methods to test explicitly the ability of cranial shape, size, and relative position/orientation of cranial regions to track population history and climate. Morphological distances among 13 recent human populations were calculated from four 3D landmark data sets, respectively reflecting facial, neurocranial, and temporal bone shape; shape and relative position; overall cranial shape; and centroid sizes. These distances were compared to neutral genetic and climatic distances among the same, or closely matched, populations. Results indicate that neurocranial and temporal bone shape track neutral genetic distances, while facial shape reflects climate; centroid size shows a weak association with climatic variables; and relative position/orientation of cranial regions does not appear correlated with any of these factors. Because different cranial regions preserve population history and climate signatures differentially, caution is suggested when using cranial anatomy for phylogenetic reconstruction.

Extensive research in human genetics on presumably neutral loci has shown that the overwhelming majority of human diversity is found among individuals within local populations. Previous apportionments of craniometric diversity are similar to these genetic apportionments, implying that interregionally differing selection pressures have played a limited role in producing contemporary human cranial diversity. Here we show that when cranial variation is independently partitioned using principal components analysis of Mosimann shape variables, some estimates of interregional craniometric differentiation are larger than those for most genetic loci. These estimates are similar to estimates for genetic loci where interregionally differing selection pressures are implicated in producing the observed patterns of variation within and among regions. These results suggest that differences among regions in at least some cranial features, particularly in the nasal region, are in part the product of interregionally differing selection pressures. Moreover, these results have implications for assessing the biological affinities of prehistoric samples that are temporally separated from contemporary human reference populations.

Childbirth is complicated in humans relative to other primates. Unlike the situation in great apes, human neonates are about the same size as the birth canal, making passage difficult. The birth mechanism (the series of rotations that the neonate must undergo to successfully negotiate its mother's birth canal) distinguishes humans not only from great apes, but also from lesser apes and monkeys. Tracing the evolution of human childbirth is difficult, because the pelvic skeleton, which forms the margins of the birth canal, tends to survive poorly in the fossil record. Only 3 female individuals preserve fairly complete birth canals, and they all date to earlier phases of human evolution. Here we present a virtual reconstruction of a female Neandertal pelvis from Tabun, Israel. The size of Tabun's reconstructed birth canal indicates that childbirth was about as difficult in Neandertals as in present-day humans, but the canal's shape indicates that Neandertals had a more primitive birth mechanism. A significant shift in childbirth apparently occurred quite late in human evolution, during the last few hundred thousand years. Such a late shift underscores the uniqueness of human childbirth and the divergent evolutionary trajectories of Neandertals and the lineage leading to present-day humans.

BACKGROUND: Survival from metastatic cutaneous melanoma is substantially lower than for localized disease. Treatments for metastatic melanoma have been limited, but remarkable clinical improvements have been reported in clinical trials in the last decade. We described the characteristics of US patients diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma during 2001-2013 and assessed trends in short-term survival for distant-stage disease. METHODS: Trends in 1-year net survival were estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator, controlling for background mortality with life tables of all-cause mortality rates by county of residence, single year of age, sex, and race for each year 2001-2013. We fitted a flexible parametric survival model on the log-hazard scale to estimate the effect of race on the hazard of death because of melanoma and estimated 1-year net survival by race. RESULTS: Only 4.4% of the 425 915 melanomas were diagnosed at a distant stage, cases diagnosed at a distant stage are more commonly men, older patients, and African Americans. Age-standardized, 1-year net survival for distant-stage disease was stable at approximately 43% during 2001-2010. From 2010 onward, survival improved rapidly, reaching 58.9% (95% confidence interval = 56.6% to 61.2%) for patients diagnosed in 2013. Younger patients experienced the largest improvement. Survival for distant-stage disease increased in both Blacks and Whites but was consistently lower in Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: One-year survival for distant-stage melanoma improved during 2001-2013, particularly in younger patients and those diagnosed since 2010. This improvement may be a consequence of the introduction of immune-checkpoint-inhibitors and other targeted treatments for metastatic and unresectable disease. Persistent survival inequalities exist between Blacks and Whites, suggesting differential access to treatment.

Despite broad agreement that Homo sapiens originated in Africa, considerable uncertainty surrounds specific models of divergence and migration across the continent1. Progress is hampered by a shortage of fossil and genomic data, as well as variability in previous estimates of divergence times1. Here we seek to discriminate among such models by considering linkage disequilibrium and diversity-based statistics, optimized for rapid, complex demographic inference2. We infer detailed demographic models for populations across Africa, including eastern and western representatives, and newly sequenced whole genomes from 44 Nama (Khoe-San) individuals from southern Africa. We infer a reticulated African population history in which present-day population structure dates back to Marine Isotope Stage 5. The earliest population divergence among contemporary populations occurred 120,000 to 135,000 years ago and was preceded by links between two or more weakly differentiated ancestral Homo populations connected by gene flow over hundreds of thousands of years. Such weakly structured stem models explain patterns of polymorphism that had previously been attributed to contributions from archaic hominins in Africa2–7. In contrast to models with archaic introgression, we predict that fossil remains from coexisting ancestral populations should be genetically and morphologically similar, and that only an inferred 1–4% of genetic differentiation among contemporary human populations can be attributed to genetic drift between stem populations. We show that model misspecification explains the variation in previous estimates of divergence times, and argue that studying a range of models is key to making robust inferences about deep history. An analysis of models of human populations in Africa, using some newly sequenced genomes, finds that human origins in the continent can best be described by a weakly structured stem model.