Colorectal cancer epidemiology (1990–2050): lessons from the Australasian experience

Abstract

CRC is regarded as a worldwide health issue, exhibiting considerable geographic differences. The current research examines the global epidemiology of CRC (1990–2021) and forecasts trends until 2050, focusing specifically on Australasia. We performed an extensive analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study to calculate age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR) for CRC from 1990 to 2021. Analyses were divided by sex, age, geographic area, and SDI. Temporal trends were evaluated by utilizing EAPC. We assessed the impact linked to significant modifiable risk factors such as dietary risks, elevated body mass index, alcohol consumption, smoking, and lack of physical activity using comparative risk evaluation techniques. To forecast CRC mortality until 2050, we utilized a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model that includes demographic and temporal factors. Regions with high SDI exhibit the highest incidence of CRC but show decreasing trends, whereas regions with middle SDI are experiencing increasing burdens. Australasia, despite its historically high rates, accomplished notable reductions in mortality (–1.95% per year), positioning itself alongside Austria and Germany as frontrunners in CRC management. The rate of CRC occurrence is believed to be greater in males than in females. Dietary elements are the primary alterable risk factor worldwide, particularly in affluent areas. Forecasts and future estimates indicate additional declines in mortality rates in high-income areas, while transitioning economies face rising burdens. The burden of CRC is moving towards developing areas. Australasia showcases effective cancer management via screening and treatment, offering essential insights for global policies and strategies addressing changeable risks. The occurrence of colorectal cancer is increasing in middle-SDI regions, whereas it is decreasing in high-SDI areas like Australasia. Australasia saw a − 1.95% yearly decline in mortality rates due to successful screening and treatment efforts. High BMI and dietary risks are the primary modifiable factors contributing to colorectal cancer deaths worldwide. Throughout various regions, males consistently exhibit greater incidence and mortality rates for colorectal cancer. Worldwide forecasts suggest persistent decreases in mortality rates in high-income areas, while other regions face increasing burdens by 2050.