Baveno VI-SSM stratifies the risk of portal hypertension-related events in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Cirrhotic patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count ≥150×109/L (Baveno VI criteria), otherwise spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) ≤40 kPa (Baveno VI-SSM criteria) can avoid endoscopy screening; however, no prospective data for their hepatic outcomes. METHODS: Compensated cirrhosis with HBV were prospectively enrolled from April 2019 to April 2022 and followed until July 2023. All patients underwent LSM, SSM and esophagogastroduodenoscopy assessment. RESULTS: Among 1,224 patients enrolled with median follow-up of 30 months (interquartile range, 21-42), the incidence of decompensation was greater in 560 patients with unfavored Baveno VI criteria (0.5 vs. 20.4 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0004) than that in 664 patients with favored Baveno VI-SSM criteria. The Baveno VI-SSM model identified more patients (54.2%) as low-risk for decompensation than Baveno VII-SSM model (single cutoff) (48.4%, P=0.004) and than Baveno VI criteria (34.6%, P<0.0001) did. Patients with high-risk varices diagnosed via endoscopy following Baveno VI-SSM model assessment had greater probability of decompensation compared to those identified by the Baveno VII-SSM model (single cutoff) (42.8 vs. 21.1 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0088). Additionally, among the 493 patients who underwent endoscopic re-assessment, 242 patients with favored Baveno VI-SSM criteria had much lower incidence of EV progression (2.6 vs. 99.5 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0004) and lower risk of decompensation compared to 140 patients with unfavored Baveno VI-SSM model (0 vs. 34.2 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0256). CONCLUSION: Baveno VI-SSM model could identify HBV-related cirrhosis patients at low risk of decompensation, which was greatly improved upon Baveno VI-SSM reassessment.