Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Marita Cross; Kanyin Liane Ong; Garland T Culbreth; Jaimie D Steinmetz; Ewerton Cousin; Hailey Lenox; Jacek A Kopec; Lydia M Haile; Peter Brooks; Deborah Kopansky-Giles; Karsten E Dreinhoefer; Neil Betteridge; Mohammadreza Abbasian; Mitra Abbasifard; Aidin Abedi; Melka Biratu Aboye; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Al Artaman; Maciej Banach; Isabela M. Benseñor; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Saeid Bitaraf; Rachelle Buchbinder; Katrin Burkart; Dinh‐Toi Chu; Sheng‐Chia Chung; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Saswati Das; Sameer Dhingra; Thanh Chi; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ali Fatehizadeh; Getahun Fetensa; Marisa Freitas; Balasankar Ganesan; Ali Gholami; Tiffany K. Gill; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Nima Hafezi‐Nejad; Samer Hamidi; Simon I Hay; Samuel Hundessa; Hiroyasu Iso; Shubha Jayaram; Vidya Kadashetti; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Moien AB Khan; Moawiah Khatatbeh; Ali Kiadaliri; Min Seo Kim; Ali‐Asghar Kolahi; Kewal Krishan; Narinder Kumar; Thao T. Le; Stephen S Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Meštrović; Erkin М Мirrakhimov; Manish Mishra; Arup Kumar Misra; Madeline E Moberg; Nouh Saad Mohamed; Syam Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Kaveh Momenzadeh; Mohammad Ali Moni; Yousef Moradi; Vincent Mougin; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Christopher J L Murray; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Văn Thành Nguyễn; Robina Khan Niazi; Mayowa Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Jay Patel; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Quinn Rafferty; Mosiur Rahman; Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi; Salman Rawaf; Aly M A Saad; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari; Mohamed A. Saleh; Austin E Schumacher; Allen Seylani; Paramdeep Singh; Amanda Smith; Ranjan Solanki; Yonatan Solomon; Ker‐Kan Tan; Nathan Y Tat; Nigusie Selomon Tibebu; Yuyi You; Peng Zheng; Osama A. Zitoun; Theo Vos; Lyn March; Anthony D. Woolf

doi:10.1016/s2665-9913(24)00117-6

Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Marita Cross(The University of Sydney), Kanyin Liane Ong(The University of Sydney), Garland T Culbreth(The University of Sydney), Jaimie D Steinmetz(The University of Sydney), Ewerton Cousin(The University of Sydney), Hailey Lenox(The University of Sydney), Jacek A Kopec(The University of Sydney), Lydia M Haile(The University of Sydney), Peter Brooks(The University of Sydney), Deborah Kopansky-Giles(The University of Sydney), Karsten E Dreinhoefer(The University of Sydney), Neil Betteridge(The University of Sydney), Mohammadreza Abbasian(The University of Sydney), Mitra Abbasifard(The University of Sydney), Aidin Abedi(The University of Sydney), Melka Biratu Aboye(The University of Sydney), Aleksandr Y. Aravkin(The University of Sydney), Al Artaman(The University of Sydney), Maciej Banach(The University of Sydney), Isabela M. Benseñor(The University of Sydney), Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula(The University of Sydney), Ajay Nagesh Bhat(The University of Sydney), Saeid Bitaraf(The University of Sydney), Rachelle Buchbinder(The University of Sydney), Katrin Burkart(The University of Sydney), Dinh‐Toi Chu(The University of Sydney), Sheng‐Chia Chung(The University of Sydney), Omid Dadras(The University of Sydney), Xiaochen Dai(The University of Sydney), Saswati Das(The University of Sydney), Sameer Dhingra(The University of Sydney), Thanh Chi(The University of Sydney), Hisham Atan Edinur(The University of Sydney), Ali Fatehizadeh(The University of Sydney), Getahun Fetensa(The University of Sydney), Marisa Freitas(The University of Sydney), Balasankar Ganesan(The University of Sydney), Ali Gholami(The University of Sydney), Tiffany K. Gill(The University of Sydney), Mahaveer Golechha(The University of Sydney), Pouya Goleij(The University of Sydney), Nima Hafezi‐Nejad(The University of Sydney), Samer Hamidi(The University of Sydney), Simon I Hay(The University of Sydney), Samuel Hundessa(The University of Sydney), Hiroyasu Iso(The University of Sydney), Shubha Jayaram(The University of Sydney), Vidya Kadashetti(The University of Sydney), Ibraheem M. Karaye(The University of Sydney), Ejaz Ahmad Khan(The University of Sydney), Moien AB Khan(The University of Sydney), Moawiah Khatatbeh(The University of Sydney), Ali Kiadaliri(The University of Sydney), Min Seo Kim(The University of Sydney), Ali‐Asghar Kolahi(The University of Sydney), Kewal Krishan(The University of Sydney), Narinder Kumar(The University of Sydney), Thao T. Le(The University of Sydney), Stephen S Lim(The University of Sydney), Stany W. Lobo(The University of Sydney), Azeem Majeed(The University of Sydney), Ahmad Azam Malik(The University of Sydney), Mohamed Kamal Mesregah(The University of Sydney), Tomislav Meštrović(The University of Sydney), Erkin М Мirrakhimov(The University of Sydney), Manish Mishra(The University of Sydney), Arup Kumar Misra(The University of Sydney), Madeline E Moberg(The University of Sydney), Nouh Saad Mohamed(The University of Sydney), Syam Mohan(The University of Sydney), Ali H. Mokdad(The University of Sydney), Kaveh Momenzadeh(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Ali Moni(The University of Sydney), Yousef Moradi(The University of Sydney), Vincent Mougin(The University of Sydney), Satinath Mukhopadhyay(The University of Sydney), Christopher J L Murray(The University of Sydney), Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy(The University of Sydney), Văn Thành Nguyễn(The University of Sydney), Robina Khan Niazi(The University of Sydney), Mayowa Owolabi(The University of Sydney), Jagadish Rao Padubidri(The University of Sydney), Jay Patel(The University of Sydney), Shrikant Pawar(The University of Sydney), Paolo Pedersini(The University of Sydney), Quinn Rafferty(The University of Sydney), Mosiur Rahman(The University of Sydney), Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi(The University of Sydney), Salman Rawaf(The University of Sydney), Aly M A Saad(The University of Sydney), Amirhossein Sahebkar(The University of Sydney), Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari(The University of Sydney), Mohamed A. Saleh(The University of Sydney), Austin E Schumacher(The University of Sydney), Allen Seylani(The University of Sydney), Paramdeep Singh(The University of Sydney), Amanda Smith(The University of Sydney), Ranjan Solanki(The University of Sydney), Yonatan Solomon(The University of Sydney), Ker‐Kan Tan(The University of Sydney), Nathan Y Tat(The University of Sydney), Nigusie Selomon Tibebu(The University of Sydney), Yuyi You(The University of Sydney), Peng Zheng(The University of Sydney), Osama A. Zitoun(The University of Sydney), Theo Vos(The University of Sydney), Lyn March(The University of Sydney), Anthony D. Woolf(The University of Sydney)

The Lancet Rheumatology

July 9, 2024

10.1016/s2665-9913(24)00117-6

Cited by 203Open Access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Gout is an inflammatory arthritis manifesting as acute episodes of severe joint pain and swelling, which can progress to chronic tophaceous or chronic erosive gout, or both. Here, we present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national estimates for prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout by sex, age, and location from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, as well as forecasted prevalence to 2050. METHODS: Gout prevalence and YLDs from 1990 to 2020 were estimated by drawing on population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan (province of China). Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs due to gout by age, sex, and location. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 with a mixed-effects model. FINDINGS: In 2020, 55·8 million (95% uncertainty interval 44·4-69·8) people globally had gout, with an age-standardised prevalence of 659·3 (525·4-822·3) per 100 000, an increase of 22·5% (20·9-24·2) since 1990. Globally, the prevalence of gout in 2020 was 3·26 (3·11-3·39) times higher in males than in females and increased with age. The total number of prevalent cases of gout is estimated to reach 95·8 million (81·1-116) in 2050, with population growth being the largest contributor to this increase and only a very small contribution from the forecasted change in gout prevalence. Age-standardised gout prevalence in 2050 is forecast to be 667 (531-830) per 100 000 population. The global age-standardised YLD rate of gout was 20·5 (14·4-28·2) per 100 000 population in 2020. High BMI accounted for 34·3% (27·7-40·6) of YLDs due to gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11·8% (9·3-14·2). INTERPRETATION: Our forecasting model estimates that the number of individuals with gout will increase by more than 70% from 2020 to 2050, primarily due to population growth and ageing. With the association between gout disability and high BMI, dietary and lifestyle modifications focusing on bodyweight reduction are needed at the population level to reduce the burden of gout along with access to interventions to prevent and control flares. Despite the rigour of the standardised GBD methodology and modelling, in many countries, particularly low-income and middle-income countries, estimates are based on modelled rather than primary data and are also lacking severity and disability estimates. We strongly encourage the collection of these data to be included in future GBD iterations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

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