Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Aimin Wu(The University of Sydney), Marita Cross(The University of Sydney), James M. Elliott(The University of Sydney), Garland T Culbreth(The University of Sydney), Lydia M Haile(The University of Sydney), Jaimie D Steinmetz(The University of Sydney), Hailey Hagins(The University of Sydney), Jacek A Kopec(The University of Sydney), Peter Brooks(The University of Sydney), Anthony D. Woolf(The University of Sydney), Deborah Kopansky-Giles(The University of Sydney), David M. Walton(The University of Sydney), Julia Treleaven(The University of Sydney), Karsten E Dreinhoefer(The University of Sydney), Neil Betteridge(The University of Sydney), Mitra Abbasifard(The University of Sydney), Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari(The University of Sydney), Isaac Yeboah Addo(The University of Sydney), Miracle Ayomikun Adesina(The University of Sydney), Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani(The University of Sydney), Janardhana P Aithala(The University of Sydney), Fadwa Alhalaiqa(The University of Sydney), Yousef Alimohamadi(The University of Sydney), Sohrab Amiri(The University of Sydney), Hubert Amu(The University of Sydney), Benny Antony(The University of Sydney), Jalal Arabloo(The University of Sydney), Aleksandr Y. Aravkin(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi(The University of Sydney), Gamechu Hunde Atomsa(The University of Sydney), Sina Azadnajafabad(The University of Sydney), Ahmed Y. Azzam(The University of Sydney), Soroush Baghdadi(The University of Sydney), Saliu Balogun(The University of Sydney), Asaminew Birhanu Balta(The University of Sydney), Maciej Banach(The University of Sydney), Morteza Banakar(The University of Sydney), Amadou Barrow(The University of Sydney), Azadeh Bashiri(The University of Sydney), Alehegn Bekele(The University of Sydney), Isabela M. Benseñor(The University of Sydney), Pankaj Bhardwaj(The University of Sydney), Ajay Nagesh Bhat(The University of Sydney), Awraris Hailu Bilchut(The University of Sydney), Andrew M. Briggs(The University of Sydney), Rachelle Buchbinder(The University of Sydney), Chao Cao(The University of Sydney), Akhilanand Chaurasia(The University of Sydney), Jesús Lorenzo Chirinos-Cáceres(The University of Sydney), Steffan Wittrup Christensen(The University of Sydney), Kaleb Coberly(The University of Sydney), Ewerton Cousin(The University of Sydney), Omid Dadras(The University of Sydney), Xiaochen Dai(The University of Sydney), Katie de Luca(The University of Sydney), Azizallah Dehghan(The University of Sydney), Huan‐Ji Dong(The University of Sydney), Michael Ekholuenetale(The University of Sydney), Muhammed Elhadi(The University of Sydney), Habitu Birhan Eshetu(The University of Sydney), Sharareh Eskandarieh(The University of Sydney), Farshid Etaee(The University of Sydney), Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe(The University of Sydney), Jawad Fares(The University of Sydney), Ali Fatehizadeh(The University of Sydney), Alireza Feizkhah(The University of Sydney), Manuela L. Ferreira(The University of Sydney), Nuno Ferreira(The University of Sydney), Florian Fischer(The University of Sydney), Richard C. Franklin(The University of Sydney), Balasankar Ganesan(The University of Sydney), Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael(The University of Sydney), Urge Gerema(The University of Sydney), Ali Gholami(The University of Sydney), Sherief Ghozy(The University of Sydney), Tiffany K. Gill(The University of Sydney), Mahaveer Golechha(The University of Sydney), Pouya Goleij(The University of Sydney), Davide Golinelli(The University of Sydney), Simon Matthew Graham(The University of Sydney), Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian(The University of Sydney), Netanja I. Harlianto(The University of Sydney), Jan Hartvigsen(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Hasanian(The University of Sydney), Mohammed Bheser Hassen(The University of Sydney), Simon I Hay(The University of Sydney), Jeffrey J. Hébert(The University of Sydney), Golnaz Heidari(The University of Sydney), Amir Human Hoveidaei(The University of Sydney), Alexander Kevin Hsiao(The University of Sydney), Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye(The University of Sydney), Chidozie C D Iwu(The University of Sydney), Louis Jacob(Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines), Manthan D Janodia(The University of Sydney), Yingzhao Jin(The University of Sydney), Jost B. Jonas(The University of Sydney), Charity Ehimwenma Joshua(The University of Sydney), Himal Kandel(The University of Sydney), Yousef Khader(The University of Sydney), Himanshu Khajuria(The University of Sydney), Ejaz Ahmad Khan(The University of Sydney), Moien AB Khan(The University of Sydney), Moawiah Khatatbeh(The University of Sydney), Sorour Khateri(The University of Sydney), Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Saeid Khonji(The University of Sydney), Jagdish Khubchandani(The University of Sydney), Yun Jin Kim(The University of Sydney), Adnan Kısa(The University of Sydney), Ali‐Asghar Kolahi(The University of Sydney), Hamid Reza Koohestani(The University of Sydney), Kewal Krishan(The University of Sydney), Mohammed Kuddus(The University of Sydney), Ambily Kuttikkattu(The University of Sydney), Savita Lasrado(The University of Sydney), Yo Han Lee(The University of Sydney), Samson Mideksa Legesse(The University of Sydney), Stephen S Lim(The University of Sydney), Xuefeng Liu(The University of Sydney), Justin Lo(The University of Sydney), Narges Malih(The University of Sydney), Shisir Prasad Manandhar(The University of Sydney), Elezebeth Mathews(The University of Sydney), Mohamed Kamal Mesregah(The University of Sydney), Tomislav Meštrović(The University of Sydney), Ted R. Miller(The University of Sydney), Peyman Mirghaderi(The University of Sydney), Awoke Misganaw(The University of Sydney), Esmaeil Mohammadi(The University of Sydney), Shafiu Mohammed(The University of Sydney), Ali H. Mokdad(The University of Sydney), Sara Momtazmanesh(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Ali Moni(The University of Sydney), Ebrahim Mostafavi(The University of Sydney), Christopher J L Murray(The University of Sydney), Tapas Sadasivan Nair(The University of Sydney), Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi(The University of Sydney), Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam(The University of Sydney), In‐Hwan Oh(The University of Sydney), Osaretin Christabel Okonji(The University of Sydney), Mayowa Owolabi(The University of Sydney), Kevin Pacheco‐Barrios(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy, Seoyeon Park(The University of Sydney), Jay Patel(The University of Sydney), Shrikant Pawar(The University of Sydney), Paolo Pedersini(The University of Sydney), Mário Fernando Prieto Peres(The University of Sydney), Ionela-Roxana Petcu(The University of Sydney), Mohammadreza Pourahmadi(The University of Sydney), Ibrahim Qattea(The University of Sydney), Pradhum Ram(The University of Sydney), Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi(The University of Sydney), Salman Rawaf(Imperial College London), Nazila Rezaei(The University of Sydney), Negar Rezaei(The University of Sydney), Umar Saeed(The University of Sydney), Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari(The University of Sydney), Saina Salahi(The University of Sydney), Monika Sawhney(The University of Sydney), Austin E Schumacher(The University of Sydney), Mahan Shafie(The University of Sydney), Saeed Shahabi(The University of Sydney), Ataollah Shahbandi(The University of Sydney), Ali Shamekh(The University of Sydney), Saurab Sharma(The University of Sydney), Rahman Shiri(The University of Sydney), Parnian Shobeiri(The University of Sydney), Ehsan Sinaei(The University of Sydney), Ambrish Singh(The University of Sydney), Jasvinder A. Singh(The University of Sydney), Paramdeep Singh(The University of Sydney), Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina(The University of Sydney), Amanda Smith(The University of Sydney), Mohammad Tabish(The University of Sydney), Ker‐Kan Tan(The University of Sydney), Masresha Derese Tegegne(The University of Sydney), Samar Tharwat(The University of Sydney), Seyed Mohammad Vahabi(The University of Sydney), Sahel Valadan Tahbaz(The University of Sydney), Tommi Vasankari(The University of Sydney), Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian(The University of Sydney), Stein Emil Vollset(The University of Sydney), Yuan‐Pang Wang(The University of Sydney), Taweewat Wiangkham(The University of Sydney), Naohiro Yonemoto(The University of Sydney), Moein Zangiabadian(The University of Sydney), Iman Zare(The University of Sydney), Dawit Zemedikun(The University of Sydney), Peng Zheng(The University of Sydney), Kanyin Liane Ong(The University of Sydney), Theo Vos(The University of Sydney), Lyn March(The University of Sydney)
The Lancet Rheumatology
February 19, 2024
10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00321-1
Cited by 233Open Access
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. METHODS: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. INTERPRETATION: Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

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