Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study

Richard D Riley(NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre), Lucinda Archer(NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre), Kym I E Snell(NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre), Joie Ensor(NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre), Paula Dhiman(Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre), Glen P. Martin(Manchester Academic Health Science Centre), Laura Bonnett(University of Liverpool), Gary S. Collins(Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre)
BMJ
January 15, 2024
Cited by 256Open Access
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Abstract

External validation studies are an important but often neglected part of prediction model research. In this article, the second in a series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues explain what an external validation study entails and describe the key steps involved, from establishing a high quality dataset to evaluating a model’s predictive performance and clinical usefulness.


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