Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bryan Chong(National University of Singapore), Jayanth Jayabaskaran(National University of Singapore), Gwyneth Kong(National University of Singapore), Yiong Huak Chan(National University Health System), Yip Han Chin(National University of Singapore), Rachel Goh(National University of Singapore), Kannan Shankar(National University of Singapore), Cheng Han Ng(National University of Singapore), Shaun Loong(National University of Singapore), Martin Tze Wah Kueh(RCSI & UCD Malaysia Campus), Chaoxing Lin(National University of Singapore), Vickram Vijay Anand(National University of Singapore), Ethan Cheng Zhe Lee(National University of Singapore), H.S. Jocelyn Chew(National University Health System), Darren Jun Hao Tan(National University of Singapore), Kai En Chan(National University of Singapore), Jiong‐Wei Wang(National University of Singapore), Mark Muthiah(National University Hospital), Georgios K. Dimitriadis(King's College London), Derek J. Hausenloy(National University of Singapore), Anurag Mehta(Virginia Commonwealth University), Roger Foo(National University of Singapore), Gregory Y.H. Lip(University of Liverpool), Mark Y. Chan(National University of Singapore), Mamas A. Mamas(University of Manchester), Carel W. le Roux(University College Dublin), Nicholas Chew(National University of Singapore)
EClinicalMedicine
February 16, 2023
10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101850
Cited by 291Open Access
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Abstract

Background: Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Methods: . Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. Findings: In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. Interpretation: The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. Funding: None.

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