Global trends in ozone concentration and attributable mortality for urban, peri-urban, and rural areas between 2000 and 2019: a modelling study

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Data on long-term trends of ozone exposure and attributable mortality across urban-rural catchment areas worldwide are scarce, especially for low-income and middle-income countries. This study aims to estimate trends in ozone concentrations and attributable mortality for urban-rural catchment areas worldwide. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a health impact function to estimate ozone concentrations and ozone-attributable chronic respiratory disease mortality for urban areas worldwide, and their surrounding peri-urban, peri-rural, and rural areas. We estimated ozone-attributable respiratory health outcomes using a modified Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study approach. We evaluate long-term trends with linear regressions of annual ozone concentrations and ozone-attributable mortality against time in years, and examined the influence of each health impact function input parameter to temporal changes in ozone-attributable disease burden estimates for 12 946 cities worldwide by region, from 2000 to 2019. FINDINGS: ) increased from 11 568 (89%) of 12 946 cities in 2000 to 12 433 (96%) cities in 2019. Percent change in ozone-attributable mortality averaged across 11 032 cities within each region from 2000 to 2019 ranged from -62% in eastern Europe to 350% in tropical Latin America. The contribution of ozone concentrations, population size, and baseline chronic respiratory disease rates to the change in ozone-attributable mortality differed regionally. INTERPRETATION: Ozone exposure is increasing worldwide, contributing to disproportionate ozone mortality in peri-urban areas and increasing ozone exposure and attributable mortality in urban areas worldwide. Reducing ozone precursor emissions in areas affecting urban and peri-urban exposure can yield substantial public health benefits. FUNDING: NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, and the NOAA Co-operative Agreement with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.