The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000–2018: a geospatial analysis

Chris A. Schmidt(University of Washington), Elizabeth A. Cromwell(University of Washington), Elex Hill(University of Washington), Katie M. Donkers(University of Washington), Megan F. Schipp(University of Washington), Kimberly B. Johnson(University of Washington), David M. Pigott(University of Washington), LBD 2019 Neglected Tropical Diseases Collaborators(University of Washington), Chris A. Schmidt(University of Washington), Elizabeth A. Cromwell(University of Washington), Elex Hill(University of Washington), David M. Pigott(University of Washington), Jaffar Abbas(University of Washington), Victor Adekanmbi(University of Washington), Olatunji Adetokunboh(University of Washington), Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Fahad Alanezi(University of Washington), Turki M Alanzi(University of Washington), Vahid Alipour(University of Washington), Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Davood Anvari(University of Washington), Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Muhammad Aqeel(University of Washington), Jalal Arabloo(University of Washington), Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Marcel Ausloos(University of Washington), Atif Amin Baig(University of Washington), Maciej Banach(University of Washington), Till Bärnighausen, Krittika Bhattacharyya(University of Washington), Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani(University of Washington), Oliver J. Brady(University of Washington), Nicola Luigi Bragazzi(University of Washington), Zahid A Butt(University of Washington), Félix Carvalho(University of Washington), Vijay Kumar Chattu(University of Washington), Saad M A Dahlawi(University of Washington), Giovanni Damiani(University of Washington), Feleke Mekonnen Demeke(University of Washington), Kebede Deribe(University of Washington), Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Díaz(University of Washington), Alireza Didarloo(University of Washington), Lucas Earl(University of Washington), Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Nazir Fattahi(University of Washington), Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya A Foigt(University of Washington), Masoud Foroutan(University of Washington), Richard C. Franklin, Yuming Guo(University of Washington), Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian(University of Washington), Samer Hamidi(University of Washington), Hadi Hassankhani(University of Washington), Claudiu Herţeliu(University of Washington), Tarig B. Higazi, Mostafa Hosseini(University of Washington), Mehdi Hosseinzadeh(University of Washington), Mowafa Househ(University of Washington), Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi(University of Washington), Irena Ilić(University of Washington), Milena Ilić(University of Washington), Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ravi Prakash Jha(University of Washington), John S. Ji(University of Washington), Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak(University of Washington), Leila R Kalankesh(University of Washington), Naser Kamyari(University of Washington), Behzad Karami Matin, Salah Eddin Karimi(University of Washington), Gbenga A Kayode(University of Washington), Ali Kazemi Karyani(University of Washington), Ejaz Ahmad Khan(University of Washington), Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab(University of Washington), Mona M Khater(University of Washington), Neda Kianipour(University of Washington), Yun Jin Kim(University of Washington), Soewarta Kosen(University of Washington), Dian Kusuma(University of Washington), Carlo La Vecchia, Van Charles Lansingh, Paul H. Lee(University of Washington), Shanshan Li(University of Washington), Shokofeh Maleki(University of Washington), Mohammad Alì Mansournia(University of Washington), Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo(University of Washington), Colm McAlinden(University of Washington), Walter Mendoza(University of Washington), Tomislav Meštrović(University of Washington), Masoud Moghadaszadeh(University of Washington), Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Ionuţ Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Bogdan Oancea, Andrew T Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna Onwujekwe, Adrian Pană, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Aziz Rezapour, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Abdallah M Samy, Masood Ali Shaikh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Shahin Soltani, Wilma A. Stolk, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, A. J. Thomson, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Francesco Saverio Violante, Giang Thu Vu, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Maryam Zamanian, Yunquan Zhang, Zhi‐Jiang Zhang, Arash Ziapour(University of Washington), Simon I Hay(University of Washington), Simon I. Hay(University of Washington)
BMC Medicine
September 7, 2022
10.1186/s12916-022-02486-y
Cited by 92Open Access
Full Text

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. METHODS: A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000-2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000-2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. RESULTS: As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0-22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.

Related Papers

No related papers found

Powered by citation graph analysis