Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering(Virginia Department of Health), Cécile Viboud(Virginia Department of Health), Emily Howerton(Virginia Department of Health), Claire P. Smith(Virginia Department of Health), Shaun Truelove(Virginia Department of Health), Michael C. Runge(Virginia Department of Health), Nicholas G Reich(Virginia Department of Health), Lucie Contamin(Virginia Department of Health), John Levander(Virginia Department of Health), Jessica Salerno(Virginia Department of Health), Wilbert van Panhuis(Virginia Department of Health), Matt Kinsey(Virginia Department of Health), Kate Tallaksen(Virginia Department of Health), Richard Obrecht(Virginia Department of Health), Laura Asher(Virginia Department of Health), Cash Costello(Virginia Department of Health), Michael Kelbaugh(Virginia Department of Health), Shelby Wilson(Virginia Department of Health), Lauren Shin(Virginia Department of Health), Molly Gallagher(Virginia Department of Health), Luke C. Mullany(Virginia Department of Health), Kaitlin Rainwater‐Lovett(Virginia Department of Health), Joseph C. Lemaitre(Virginia Department of Health), Juan Dent(Virginia Department of Health), Kyra H. Grantz(Virginia Department of Health), Joshua Kaminsky(Virginia Department of Health), Stephen A. Lauer(Virginia Department of Health), Elizabeth C. Lee(Virginia Department of Health), Hannah R. Meredith(Virginia Department of Health), Javier Perez‐Saez(Virginia Department of Health), Lindsay T. Keegan(Virginia Department of Health), D. Karlen(Virginia Department of Health), Matteo Chinazzi(Virginia Department of Health), Jessica T. Davis(Virginia Department of Health), Kunpeng Mu(Virginia Department of Health), Xinyue Xiong(Virginia Department of Health), Ana Pastore y Piontti(Virginia Department of Health), Alessandro Vespignani(Virginia Department of Health), Ajitesh Srivastava(Virginia Department of Health), Przemyslaw Porebski(Virginia Department of Health), Srinivasan Venkatramanan(Virginia Department of Health), Aniruddha Adiga(Virginia Department of Health), Bryan Lewis(Virginia Department of Health), Brian Klahn(Virginia Department of Health), Joseph Outten(Virginia Department of Health), James Schlitt(Virginia Department of Health), Patrick Corbett(Virginia Department of Health), Pyrros A. Telionis(Virginia Department of Health), Lijing Wang(Virginia Department of Health), Akhil Sai Peddireddy(Virginia Department of Health), Benjamin Hurt(Virginia Department of Health), Jiangzhuo Chen(Virginia Department of Health), Anil Vullikanti(Virginia Department of Health), Madhav Marathe(Virginia Department of Health), Jessica M. Healy(Virginia Department of Health), Rachel B. Slayton(Virginia Department of Health), Matthew Biggerstaff(Virginia Department of Health), Michael A. Johansson(Virginia Department of Health), Katriona Shea(Virginia Department of Health), Justin Lessler(Virginia Department of Health)
MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
May 5, 2021
10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
Cited by 163Open Access
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Abstract

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

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