Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden

Gholamreza Roshandel; Jacques Ferlay; Ali Ghanbari; Elham Partovipour; Fereshteh Salavati; Kimia Aryan; Gohar Mohammadi; Mostafa Khoshaabi; Alireza Sadjadi; Masoud Davanlou; Fereshteh Asgari; Hakimeh Abadi; Abbas Aghaei; Seyed‐Vahid Ahmadi‐Tabatabaei; Kazem Alizadeh‐Barzian; A Ali Asgari; Noorali Asgari; Soheyla Azami; Maria Cheraghi; Floria Enferadi; Masoumeh Eslami‐Nasab; Jila Fakhery; Mohsen Farmahini Farahani; Solmaz Farrokhzad; Mansooreh Fateh; Ali Ghasemi; Fatemeh Ghasemi‐Kebria; Hajar Gholami; Arash Golpazir; Susan Hasanpour‐Heidari; Narjes Hazar; Hosein Hoseini‐Hoshyar; Mohsen Izadi; Mahdi Jahantigh; Ahmad Jalilvand; Seyed‐Mehrdad Jazayeri; Yasan Kazemzadeh; Maryam Khajavi; Maryam Khalednejad; Marziyeh Khanloghi; Maryam Kooshki; Amineh Madani; Mahdi Mirheidari; Hosein Mohammadifar; Zeinab Moinfar; Yasaman Mojtahedzadeh; Ali Morsali; Rita Motidost‐Komleh; Tahereh Mousavi; Maboobeh Narooei; Mohammad Javad Nasiri; Sharareh Niksiar; Mehdi Pabaghi; Habibollah Pirnejad; azadeh pournajaf; Gita Pourshahi; Amir Rahnama; Bahman Rashidpoor; Zahra Ravankhah; Khadijeh Rezaei; Abbas Rezaianzadeh; Gholamreza Sadeghi; Mohammad Reza Salehifar; Athareh Shahdadi; Mehraban Shahi; Farrokh Sharifi‐Moghaddam; Roya Sherafati; Ali Soleimani; Maryam Soltany‐hojatabad; Mohammad Hossein Somi; Sohrab Yadolahi; Majid Yaghoubi‐Ashrafi; Aliakbar Zareiyan; Hossein Poustchi; Kazem Zendehdel; Afshin Ostovar; Ghasem Janbabaei; Alireza Raeisi; Elisabete Weiderpass; Reza Malekzadeh; Freddie Bray

doi:10.1002/ijc.33574

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden

Gholamreza Roshandel(Golestan University), Jacques Ferlay(Centre international de recherche sur le cancer), Ali Ghanbari(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Elham Partovipour(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Fereshteh Salavati(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Kimia Aryan(Golestan University), Gohar Mohammadi(Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences), Mostafa Khoshaabi(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Alireza Sadjadi(Institut de Recherche en Santé Digestive), Masoud Davanlou(Sina Hospital), Fereshteh Asgari(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Hakimeh Abadi(Roche (United States)), Abbas Aghaei(Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences), Seyed‐Vahid Ahmadi‐Tabatabaei(Kerman University of Medical Sciences), Kazem Alizadeh‐Barzian(Isfahan University of Medical Sciences), A Ali Asgari(Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences), Noorali Asgari(Zabol University of Medical Sciences), Soheyla Azami(Saveh University of Medical Sciences), Maria Cheraghi(Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences), Floria Enferadi(North Khorasan University of Medical Sciences), Masoumeh Eslami‐Nasab(Sirjan University of Technology), Jila Fakhery(Islamic Azad University, Khoy Branch), Mohsen Farmahini Farahani(Arak University of Medical Sciences), Solmaz Farrokhzad(Qazvin University of Medical Sciences), Mansooreh Fateh(Shahroud University of Medical Sciences), Ali Ghasemi(Birjand University of Medical Sciences), Fatemeh Ghasemi‐Kebria(Golestan University), Hajar Gholami(Ardabil University of Medical Sciences), Arash Golpazir(Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences), Susan Hasanpour‐Heidari(Golestan University), Narjes Hazar(Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences and Health Services), Hosein Hoseini‐Hoshyar(Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences), Mohsen Izadi(Gerash University of Medical Sciences), Mahdi Jahantigh(Zahedan University of Medical Sciences), Ahmad Jalilvand(Zanjan University of Medical Sciences), Seyed‐Mehrdad Jazayeri(Kashan University of Medical Sciences), Yasan Kazemzadeh(Imam Khomeini Hospital), Maryam Khajavi(Dezful University of Medical Sciences), Maryam Khalednejad(Jahrom University of Medical Sciences), Marziyeh Khanloghi(Melbourn Science Park), Maryam Kooshki(Lorestan University of Medical Sciences), Amineh Madani(Hamedan University of Medical Sciences), Mahdi Mirheidari(Qom University of Medical Science and Health Services), Hosein Mohammadifar(Fasa University of Medical Sciences), Zeinab Moinfar(Tehran University of Medical Sciences), Yasaman Mojtahedzadeh(Bam University of Medical Sciences), Ali Morsali(Teerthanker Mahaveer Medical College & Research Centre), Rita Motidost‐Komleh(Iran University of Medical Sciences), Tahereh Mousavi(Babol University of Medical Sciences), Maboobeh Narooei(Iranshahr University), Mohammad Javad Nasiri(Sheba Medical Center), Sharareh Niksiar(Hamedan University of Medical Sciences), Mehdi Pabaghi(Islamic Azad University, Larestan Branch), Habibollah Pirnejad(Urmia University), azadeh pournajaf(Medical University of Ilam), Gita Pourshahi(Torbat Heydarieh University of Medical Sciences), Amir Rahnama(Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences), Bahman Rashidpoor(Yasouj University), Zahra Ravankhah(Isfahan University of Medical Sciences), Khadijeh Rezaei(Mashhad University of Medical Sciences), Abbas Rezaianzadeh(Shiraz University of Medical Sciences), Gholamreza Sadeghi(Guilan University of Medical Sciences), Mohammad Reza Salehifar(Torbat Heydarieh University of Medical Sciences), Athareh Shahdadi(University of Jiroft), Mehraban Shahi(University of Hormozgan), Farrokh Sharifi‐Moghaddam(Gonabad University of Medical Sciences), Roya Sherafati(Islamic Azad University Sari Branch), Ali Soleimani(University of Maragheh), Maryam Soltany‐hojatabad(Esfarayen University of Technology), Mohammad Hossein Somi(Tabriz University of Medical Sciences), Sohrab Yadolahi(Semnan University of Medical Sciences), Majid Yaghoubi‐Ashrafi(Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences), Aliakbar Zareiyan(Jahrom University), Hossein Poustchi(Institut de Recherche en Santé Digestive), Kazem Zendehdel(Motamed Cancer Institute), Afshin Ostovar(Iran University of Medical Sciences), Ghasem Janbabaei(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Alireza Raeisi(Ministry of Health and Medical Education), Elisabete Weiderpass(Centre international de recherche sur le cancer), Reza Malekzadeh(Institut de Recherche en Santé Digestive), Freddie Bray(Centre international de recherche sur le cancer)

International Journal of Cancer

April 21, 2021

10.1002/ijc.33574

Cited by 178Open Access

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Abstract

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

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