Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States

IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team(University of Washington), Robert C. Reiner(University of Washington), Ryan M Barber(University of Washington), James K. Collins(University of Washington), Peng Zheng(University of Washington), Christopher Adolph(University of Washington), James Albright(University of Washington), Catherine M Antony(University of Washington), Aleksandr Y. Aravkin(University of Washington), Steven D Bachmeier(University of Washington), Bree Bang-Jensen(University of Washington), Marlena S. Bannick(University of Washington), Sabina Bloom(University of Washington), Austin Carter(University of Washington), Emma Castro(University of Washington), Kate Causey(University of Washington), Suman Chakrabarti(University of Washington), Fiona Charlson(The University of Queensland), Rebecca M Cogen(University of Washington), Emily Combs(University of Washington), Xiaochen Dai(University of Washington), William James Dangel(University of Washington), Lucas Earl(University of Washington), Samuel B Ewald(University of Washington), Maha Ezalarab(University of Washington), Alize J Ferrari(The University of Queensland), Abraham D. Flaxman(University of Washington), Joseph Frostad(University of Washington), Nancy Fullman(University of Washington), Emmanuela Gakidou(University of Washington), John Gallagher(University of Washington), Scott Glenn(University of Washington), Erik A. Goosmann(University of Washington), Jiawei He(University of Washington), Nathaniel J Henry(University of Washington), Erin Hulland(University of Washington), Benjamin Hurst(University of Washington), Casey K. Johanns(University of Washington), Parkes Kendrick(University of Washington), Apurva Khemani(University of Washington), Samantha Leigh Larson(University of Washington), Alice Lazzar-Atwood(University of Washington), Kate E LeGrand(University of Washington), Haley Lescinsky(The University of Queensland), Akiaja Lindstrom(The University of Queensland), Emily Linebarger(University of Washington), Rafael Lozano(University of Washington), Rui Ma(University of Washington), Johan Månsson(University of Washington), Beatrice Magistro(University of Washington), Ana Maria Mantilla Herrera(The University of Queensland), Laurie B. Marczak(University of Washington), Molly K. Miller-Petrie(University of Washington), Ali H. Mokdad(University of Washington), Julia D. Morgan(University of Washington), Paulami Naik(University of Washington), Christopher M Odell(University of Washington), James Kevin O'Halloran(University of Washington), Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman(University of Washington), Samuel M Ostroff(University of Washington), Maja Pasovic(University of Washington), Louise Penberthy(University of Washington), Geoffrey Phipps(University of Washington), David M. Pigott(University of Washington), Ian Pollock(University of Washington), Rebecca E. Ramshaw(University of Washington), Sofia Boston Redford(University of Washington), Grace Reinke(University of Washington), Sam Rolfe(University of Washington), Damian Santomauro(The University of Queensland), J. R. Shackleton(University of Washington), David H. Shaw(University of Washington), Brittney S Sheena(University of Washington), Aleksei Sholokhov(University of Washington), Reed J D Sorensen(University of Washington), Gianna W. Sparks(University of Washington), Emma Elizabeth Spurlock(University of Washington), Michelle Subart(University of Washington), Ruri Syailendrawati(University of Washington), Anna E Torre(University of Washington), Christopher Troeger(University of Washington), Theo Vos(University of Washington), Stefanie Watson(University of Washington), Stefanie Watson(University of Washington), Kirsten E. Wiens(University of Washington), Lauren Woyczynski(University of Washington), Liming Xu(University of Washington), Jize Zhang(University of Washington), Simon I Hay(University of Washington), Stephen S Lim(University of Washington), Christopher J L Murray(University of Washington)
Nature Medicine
October 23, 2020
10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9
Cited by 601Open Access
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Abstract

We use COVID-19 case and mortality data from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States at the state level from 22 September 2020 through 28 February 2021. Using this SEIR model, and projections of critical driving covariates (pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates and mask use per capita), we assessed scenarios of social distancing mandates and levels of mask use. Projections of current non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies by state-with social distancing mandates reinstated when a threshold of 8 deaths per million population is exceeded (reference scenario)-suggest that, cumulatively, 511,373 (469,578-578,347) lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by 28 February 2021. We find that achieving universal mask use (95% mask use in public) could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Universal mask use could save an additional 129,574 (85,284-170,867) lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 (60,731-133,077) lives assuming a lesser adoption of mask wearing (85%), when compared to the reference scenario.

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