Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Henrik Salje(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Cécile Tran Kiem(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Noémie Lefrancq(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Noémie Courtejoie(Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé), Paolo Bosetti(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Juliette Paireau(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Alessio Andronico(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Nathanaël Hozé(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Jehanne Richet(Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé), Claire-Lise Dubost(Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé), Yann Le Strat(Santé Publique France), Justin Lessler(Johns Hopkins University), D Lévy-Brühl(Santé Publique France), Arnaud Fontanet(Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers), Lulla Opatowski(Inserm), Pierre‐Yves Boëlle(Inserm), Simon Cauchemez(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Science
May 13, 2020
10.1126/science.abc3517
Cited by 1,178Open Access
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Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic in France Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science , this issue p. 208

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