Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model
Richard D Riley(Keele University), Joie Ensor(Keele University), Kym I E Snell(Keele University), Frank E. Harrell(Vanderbilt University), Glen P. Martin(Manchester Academic Health Science Centre), Johannes B. Reitsma(University Medical Center Utrecht), Karel G.M. Moons(University Medical Center Utrecht), Gary S. Collins(Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre), Maarten van Smeden(Leiden University Medical Center)
Cited by 2,456Open Access
Abstract
Clinical prediction models aim to predict outcomes in individuals, to inform diagnosis or prognosis in healthcare. Hundreds of prediction models are published in the medical literature each year, yet many are developed using a dataset that is too small for the total number of participants or outcome events. This leads to inaccurate predictions and consequently incorrect healthcare decisions for some individuals. In this article, the authors provide guidance on how to calculate the sample size required to develop a clinical prediction model.
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