Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
Xi He(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Eric H. Y. Lau(University of Hong Kong), Peng Wu(University of Hong Kong), Xilong Deng(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Jian Wang(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Xinxin Hao(University of Hong Kong), Yiu Chung Lau(University of Hong Kong), Jessica Y. Wong(University of Hong Kong), Yujuan Guan(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Xinghua Tan(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Xiaoneng Mo(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Yanqing Chen(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Baolin Liao(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Weilie Chen(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Fengyu Hu(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Qing Zhang(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Mingqiu Zhong(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Yanrong Wu(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Lingzhai Zhao(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Fuchun Zhang(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Benjamin J. Cowling(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), Fang Li(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital), GM Leung(Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital)
Cited by 598Open Access
Abstract
ABSTRACT We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.
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