Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

Rebecca Chaplin‐Kramer(University of Minnesota), Richard Sharp(Stanford University), Charlotte Weil(Stanford University), Elena M. Bennett(McGill University), Unai Pascual(Ikerbasque), Katie K. Arkema(University of Washington), Kate A. Brauman(University of Minnesota), Benjamin P. Bryant(Stanford University), Anne D. Guerry(University of Washington), Nick M. Haddad(Kellogg's (Canada)), Maike Hamann(University of Minnesota), Perrine Hamel(Stanford University), Justin A. Johnson(University of Minnesota), Lisa Mandle(Stanford University), Henrique M. Pereira(Universidade do Porto), Stephen Polasky(University of Minnesota), Mary Ruckelshaus(University of Washington), M. Rebecca Shaw(World Wildlife Fund), Jessica M. Silver(University of Washington), Adrian Vogl(Stanford University), Gretchen C. Daily(Stanford University)
Science
October 11, 2019
10.1126/science.aaw3372
Cited by 452

Abstract

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

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