Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union

Abstract

As the results were finalized, LeDuc’s law of referenda—that voters increasingly favor the status quo as referendum campaigns wear on—had clearly failed to prevent Britain’s dramatic exit from the European Union (EU). Despite apocalyptic warnings from those who supported the status quo, 51.9 percent of voters chose to endorse “Brexit.” Instant reactions presented the result as a shock, but Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley’s book analyzing the factors that led up to this monumental decision makes it clear that a “leave” vote was far more likely than many expected. The book’s most substantial contribution to the nascent Brexit literature is a series of models developed to analyze the factors behind voters’ support and opposition to the EU. The empirical evidence presented by the authors is wide-ranging and addresses the key issues leading up to the referendum: both direct and indirect attitudes toward the EU (Chapter 4), support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (Chapters 5 and 6), and the drivers of vote choice in the referendum itself (Chapter 7).