Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015

Gregory A. Roth(University of Washington), Catherine O. Johnson(University of Washington), Amanuel Alemu Abajobir(The University of Queensland), Foad Abd-Allah(Cairo University), Semaw Ferede Abera(Mekelle University), Gebre Yitayih Abyu(Mekelle University), Muktar Beshir Ahmed(Jimma University), Baran Aksut(Cleveland Clinic), Shazia Alam(University of Washington), Khurshid Alam(The University of Melbourne), François Alla(Université de Lorraine), Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán(University of Cartagena), Stephen M. Amrock(Oregon Health & Science University), Hossein Ansari(Zahedan University of Medical Sciences), Johan Ärnlöv(Uppsala University), Hamid Asayesh(Qom University of Medical Science and Health Services), Tesfay Mehari Atey(Mekelle University), Leticia Ávila‐Burgos(Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública), Ashish Awasthi(Sanjay Gandhi Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences), Amitava Banerjee(University College London), Aleksandra Barać(University of Peradeniya), Till Bärnighausen(Harvard University Press), Lars Barregård(Bispebjerg Hospital), Neeraj Bedi(Jazan University), Ezra B. Ketema(Deakin University), Derrick Bennett(Auckland University of Technology), Gebremedhin Berhe(Mekelle University), Zulfiqar A Bhutta(Aga Khan University), Shimelash Bitew Workie(Wolaita Sodo University), Jonathan R. Carapetis(The University of Western Australia), Juan Jesús Carrero(Karolinska Institutet), Déborah Carvalho Malta(Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais), Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela(Instituto Nacional de Salud), Jacqueline Castillo-Rivas(University of Peradeniya), Ferrán Catalá-López(Universitat de València), Jee-Young Choi(Seoul National University Hospital), Hanne Christensen(Bispebjerg Hospital), Massimo Círillo(University of Peradeniya), Leslie T. Cooper(Mayo Clinic), Michael H Criqui(Deakin University), David K Cundiff(University of Salerno), Albertino Damasceno(Deakin University), Lalit Dandona(University of Washington), Rakhi Dandona(Deakin University), Kairat Davletov(University of Peradeniya), Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne(University of Peradeniya), Prabhakaran Dorairaj(Centre for Chronic Disease Control), Manisha Dubey(International Institute for Population Sciences), Rebecca Ehrenkranz(Universitat de València), Maysaa El Sayed Zaki(Mansoura University), Emerito Jose A Faraon(Deakin University), Alireza Esteghamati(Tehran University of Medical Sciences), Talha Farid(University of Louisville), Maryam S. Farvid(Harvard University Press), Valery L. Feigin(Auckland University of Technology), Eric L. Ding(Harvard University Press), Gerry Fowkes(University of Massachusetts Boston), Tsegaye Gebrehiwot(Jimma University), Richard F Gillum(University of Peradeniya), Audra L Gold(University of Washington), Philimon Gona(Deakin University), Rajeev Gupta(Bispebjerg Hospital), Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold(University of Groningen), Nima Hafezi‐Nejad(Tehran University of Medical Sciences), Tesfayé Hailu(University of Louisville), Gessessew Bugssa Hailu(University of Louisville), Graeme J. Hankey(University of Louisville), Hamid Yimam Hassen(University of Louisville), Kalkidan Hassen Abate(Jimma University), Rasmus Havmoeller(University of Peradeniya), Simon I Hay(University of Washington), Masako Horino(Deakin University), Peter J. Hotez(Baylor College of Medicine), Kathryn H. Jacobsen(George Mason University), Spencer L James(Universitat de València), Mehdi Javanbakht(Universitat de València), Panniyammakal Jeemon(Bispebjerg Hospital), Denny John(University of Washington), Jost B. Jonas(University of Salerno), Yogeshwar Kalkonde(University of Salerno), Chanté Karimkhani(Mayo Clinic), Amir Kasaeian(Tehran University of Medical Sciences), Yousef Khader(Jordan University of Science and Technology), Abdur Rahman Khan(University of Louisville), Young‐Ho Khang(University of Peradeniya), Sahil Khera(University of Peradeniya), Abdullah T Khoja(University of Peradeniya), Jagdish Khubchandani(Ball State University), Daniel Kim(Northeastern University), Dhaval Kolte(Mansoura University), Soewarta Kosen(Mansoura University), Kristopher J Krohn(Deakin University), G Anil Kumar(Public Health Foundation of India), Gene F. Kwan(Boston University), Dharmesh Kumar Lal(Tehran University of Medical Sciences), Anders Larsson(Uppsala University), Shai Linn(University of Louisville), Alan D Lopez(University of Louisville), Paulo A. Lotufo(University of Louisville), Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek(Mansoura University), Reza Malekzadeh(Tehran University of Medical Sciences), Mohsen Mazidi(Chinese Academy of Sciences), Toni Meier(University of Massachusetts Boston), Kidanu Gebremariam Meles(Mekelle University), George A. Mensah(National Institutes of Health), Atte Meretoja(The University of Melbourne), Haftay Berhane Mezgebe(Mekelle University), Ted R. Miller(University of Peradeniya), Erkin М Мirrakhimov(Kyrgyz State Medical Academy), Shafiu Mohammed(Ahmadu Bello University), Andrew Moran(Baylor College of Medicine), Kamarul Imran Musa(Universiti Sains Malaysia), Jagat Narula(Universitat de València), Bruce Neal(Universitat de València), Frida Ngalesoni(Ministry of Health and Social Welfare), Grant Nguyen(University of Salerno), Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer(University of Salerno), Mayowa Owolabi(University of Salerno), George Patton(Mayo Clinic), João Mário Pedro(Mayo Clinic), Dima M. Qato(Eduardo Mondlane University), Mostafa Qorbani(Eduardo Mondlane University), Kazem Rahimi(University of Oxford), Rajesh Kumar(University of Peradeniya), Salman Rawaf(University of Peradeniya), Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro(Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais), Saeid Safiri(University of Maragheh), Joshua A. Salomon(Harvard University Press), Itamar S Santos(Universidade de São Paulo), Milena M Santric-Milicevic(Auckland University of Technology), Benn Sartorius(International Institute for Population Sciences), Aletta E. Schutte(International Institute for Population Sciences), Sadaf G Sepanlou(International Institute for Population Sciences), Masood Ali Shaikh(Mansoura University), Min‐Jeong Shin(Mansoura University), Mehdi H. Shishehbor(Cleveland Clinic), Hirbo Shore Roba(University of Louisville), Diego Augusto Santos Silva(University of Louisville), Eugène Sobngwi(Université de Yaoundé I), Saverio Stranges(University of Massachusetts Boston), Soumya Swaminathan(University of Massachusetts Boston), Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos(Universitat de València), Niguse Tadele Atnafu(Mizan Tepi University), Fisaha Haile Tesfay(Mekelle University), JS Thakur(University of Groningen), Amanda G. Thrift(University of Groningen), Roman Topór-Mądry(Jagiellonian University), Thomas Truelsen(University of Copenhagen), Stefanos Tyrovolas(George Mason University), Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja(Universitat de València), Olalekan A. Uthman(Universitat de València), Tommi Vasankari(Universitat de València), Vasily Vlassov(National Research University Higher School of Economics), Stein Emil Vollset(University of Peradeniya), Tolassa Wakayo(University of Salerno), David Watkins(Mayo Clinic), Robert Weintraub(Royal Children's Hospital), Andrea Werdecker(Mayo Clinic), Ronny Westerman(Mayo Clinic), Charles Shey Wiysonge(Eduardo Mondlane University), Charles Wolfe(Eduardo Mondlane University), Abdulhalik Workicho(Jimma University), Gelin Xu(University of Peradeniya), Yuichiro Yano(University of Peradeniya), Paul Yip(University of Peradeniya), Naohiro Yonemoto(University of Peradeniya), Mustafa Z Younis(Mansoura University), Chuanhua Yu(Wuhan University), Theo Vos(Mansoura University), Mohsen Naghavi(Mansoura University), Christopher J L Murray(University of Washington)
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
May 17, 2017
10.1016/j.jacc.2017.04.052
Cited by 3,859Open Access
Full Text

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75. CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

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