A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II

Fiona E. Matthews; Blossom C. M. Stephan; Louise Robinson; Carol Jagger; Linda Barnes; Antony Arthur; Carol Brayne; Adelina Comas‐Herrera; Raphael Wittenberg; Tom Dening; Cherie McCracken; C MOODY; Bronwyn Parry; E. Green; Richard Barnes; Jane Warwick; Ling Gao; Andrew Mattison; Christine Baldwin; Stéphanie Harrison; Bob Woods; Ian G. McKeith; Paul G. Ince; Stephen B. Wharton; G. Forster

doi:10.1038/ncomms11398

A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II

Fiona E. Matthews(MRC Biostatistics Unit), Blossom C. M. Stephan(Newcastle University), Louise Robinson(Newcastle University), Carol Jagger(Newcastle University), Linda Barnes(University of Cambridge), Antony Arthur(University of East Anglia), Carol Brayne(University of Cambridge), Adelina Comas‐Herrera(London School of Economics and Political Science), Raphael Wittenberg(London School of Economics and Political Science), Tom Dening(University of Nottingham), Cherie McCracken(University of Liverpool), C MOODY(Medical Research Council), Bronwyn Parry(King's College London), E. Green(University of Cambridge), Richard Barnes(University of Cambridge), Jane Warwick(University of Cambridge), Ling Gao(MRC Biostatistics Unit), Andrew Mattison(Newcastle University), Christine Baldwin(Alzheimer's Society), Stéphanie Harrison(Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital), Bob Woods(Bangor University), Ian G. McKeith(Newcastle Hospitals - Campus for Ageing and Vitality), Paul G. Ince(University of Sheffield), Stephen B. Wharton(University of Sheffield), G. Forster(University of Sheffield)

Nature Communications

April 19, 2016

10.1038/ncomms11398

Cited by 430Open Access

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Abstract

Dramatic global increases in future numbers of people with dementia have been predicted. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989-1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008-2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.

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