Statistical Forecasting of Electric Power Restoration Times in Hurricanes and Ice Storms

Abstract

This paper introduces a new method for estimating the time at which electric power will be restored after a major storm. The method was applied for hurricanes and ice storms for three major electric power companies on the East Coast. Using an unusually large dataset that includes the companies' experiences in six hurricanes and eight ice storms, accelerated failure time models were fitted and used to predict the duration of each probable outage in a storm. By aggregating those estimated outage durations and accounting for variable outage start times, restoration curves were then estimated for each county in the companies' service areas. The method can be applied as a storm approaches, before damage assessments are available from the field, thus helping to better inform customers and the public of expected post-storm power restoration times. Results of model applications using testing data suggest they have promising predictive ability.