Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch(Ministry of Health), Ted Cohen(Ministry of Health), Ben S. Cooper(Ministry of Health), James M. Robins(Ministry of Health), Stefan Ma(Ministry of Health), Lyn James(Ministry of Health), Gowri Gopalakrishna(Ministry of Health), Suok Kai Chew(Ministry of Health), Chorh Chuan Tan(Ministry of Health), Matthew H. Samore(Ministry of Health), David N. Fisman(Ministry of Health), Megan Murray(Ministry of Health)
Cited by 1,600Open Access
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
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