A model to predict the incubation and nymphal development periods of the desert locust, <i>Schistocerca gregaria</i> (Orthoptera: Acrididae)

Abstract

Abstract A model has been developed which estimates the egg and nymphal development periods of the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål). The model uses long-term monthly mean temperatures from a number of weather stations in the desert locust area. The computer program calculates the daily mean temperature and the daily related amount of development. It then accumulates the percentage of development estimated on successive days until the total reaches or exceeds 100. The model can be started on any day of the year at any given development stage and it can calculate development backwards in time as well as forwards. The model should be a useful aid in forecasting desert locust population developments and for the planning of surveys.