Predicting Survival in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Factors that determine survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) drive clinical management. A quantitative survival prediction tool has not been established for research or clinical use. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 2716 patients with PAH enrolled consecutively in the US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) were analyzed to assess predictors of 1-year survival. We identified independent prognosticators of survival and derived a multivariable, weighted risk formula for clinical use. One-year survival from the date of enrollment was 91.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.9 to 92.1). In a multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazards, variables independently associated with increased mortality included pulmonary vascular resistance >32 Wood units (hazard ratio [HR], 4.1; 95% CI, 2.0 to 8.3), PAH associated with portal hypertension (HR, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.4 to 5.4), modified New York Heart Association/World Health Organization functional class IV (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.2 to 4.4), men >60 years of age (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0), and family history of PAH (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.0). Renal insufficiency, PAH associated with connective tissue disease, functional class III, mean right atrial pressure, resting systolic blood pressure and heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide, percent predicted carbon monoxide diffusing capacity, and pericardial effusion on echocardiogram all predicted mortality. Based on these multivariable analyses, a prognostic equation was derived and validated by bootstrapping technique. CONCLUSIONS: We identified key predictors of survival based on the patient's most recent evaluation and formulated a contemporary prognostic equation. Use of this tool may allow the individualization and optimization of therapeutic strategies. Serial follow-up and reassessment are warranted. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00370214.