Air Travel Is Associated with Intracontinental Spread of Dengue Virus Serotypes 1–3 in Brazil

Márcio Roberto Teixeira Nunes(Instituto Evandro Chagas), Gustavo Palacios(Columbia University), Nuno R. Faria(University of Oxford), Edivaldo Costa Sousa(Instituto Evandro Chagas), Jamilla Augusta de Sousa Pantoja(Instituto Evandro Chagas), Sueli G. Rodrigues(Instituto Evandro Chagas), Valéria Lima Carvalho(Instituto Evandro Chagas), Daniele Barbosa de Almeida Medeiros(Instituto Evandro Chagas), Nazir Savji(Columbia University), Guy Baele(University of Oxford), Marc A. Suchard(University of California, Los Angeles), Philippe Lemey(University of Oxford), Pedro Fernando da Costa Vasconcelos(Instituto Evandro Chagas), W. Ian Lipkin(Columbia University)
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
April 17, 2014
10.1371/journal.pntd.0002769
Cited by 139Open Access
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Abstract

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil.

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