A phylogenetic estimator of effective population size or mutation rate.

Abstract

A new estimator of the essential parameter theta = 4Ne mu from DNA polymorphism data is developed under the neutral Wright-Fisher model without recombination and population subdivision, where Ne is the effective population size and mu is the mutation rate per locus per generation. The new estimator has a variance only slightly larger than the minimum variance of all possible unbiased estimators of the parameter and is substantially smaller than that of any existing estimator. The high efficiency of the new estimator is achieved by making full use of phylogenetic information in a sample of DNA sequences from a population. An example of estimating theta by the new method is presented using the mitochondrial sequences from an American Indian population.