Spatial load forecasting model for electrical distribution planning

Abstract

This paper suggests a long-term distribution area load forecasting algorithm which offers basic data for power distribution system planning. To build the forecasting model, 4-level hierarchical spatial structure is introduced: nation, region, area, and S/S(substation). And, each spatial load can be decided proportional to its portion in the higher level. This paper introduces the horizon year demands to improve the forecasting results. And, this paper also suggests an effective load transfer algorithm to improve forecasting stability in case of new or stopped substations.