E Briët

Oral anticoagulant therapy has been shown to be effective for several indications. The optimal intensity of anticoagulation for each indication, however, is largely unknown. To determine this optimal intensity, randomised clinical trials are conducted in which two target levels of anticoagulation are compared. This approach is inefficient, since the choice of the target levels will be arbitrary. Moreover, the achieved intensity is not taken into account. We propose a method to determine the optimal achieved intensity of anticoagulation. This method can be applied within a clinical trial as an "efficacy-analysis", but also on data gathered in day-to-day patient care. In this method, INR-specific incidence rates of events, either thromboembolic or hemorrhagic, are calculated. The numerator of the incidence rate is based on data on the INR at the time of the event. The denominator consists of the person-time at each INR value, summed over all patients, and is calculated from all INR measurements of all patients during the follow-up interval. This INR-specific person-time is calculated with the assumption of a linear increase or decrease between two consecutive INR determinations. Since the incidence rates may be substratified on covariates, efficient assessment of the effects of other factors (e.g. age, sex, comedication) by multivariate regression analysis becomes possible. This method allows the determination of the optimal pharmacological effects of anticoagulation, which can form a rational starting point for choosing the target levels in subsequent clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Patients with mechanical heart valve prostheses may experience valve thrombosis and subsequent systemic embolism for which they are treated with oral anticoagulant therapy. It is essential to know reliable estimates of the risks and benefits of this therapy in order to answer a number of clinical questions rationally. We sought to obtain more precise estimates of the risks and benefits by combining the data from individual studies by using meta-analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched for studies in which the incidences were reported of embolic or bleeding complications in patients with mechanical heart valve prostheses. They were collected from the Medline and Current Contents database and by cross-references between 1970 and 1992. Since most studies vary greatly in many respects, we used a number of inclusion criteria, thus selecting comparable studies of acceptable quality only. The influence of antithrombotic therapy, valve position, and valve type was analyzed by univariate and by multivariate analysis with Poisson regression techniques. Forty-six studies were found, including 13,088 patients studied for 53,647 patient-years. We found an incidence of major embolism in the absence of antithrombotic therapy of 4 per 100 patient-years. With antiplatelet therapy this risk was 2.2 per 100 patient-years, and with coumarin therapy it was reduced to 1 per 100 patient-years. This risk varied with the type and the site of the prosthesis. A prosthesis in mitral position increased the risk almost twice as compared with the aortic position. Tilting disc valves and bileaflet valves showed a lower incidence of major embolism than caged ball valves. An incidence of major bleeding was found in patients treated with coumarin derivatives of 1.4 per 100 patient-years. The incidence of bleeding became significantly higher with the addition of antiplatelet therapy, although this did not decrease the risk of thromboembolism any further. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide a reference for future studies and give adequate risk estimates for clinical decision making.

BACKGROUND: The optimal intensity of oral anticoagulant therapy for patients with mechanical heart valves (i.e., the level at which thromboembolic complications are effectively prevented without excessive bleeding) is not known. We attempted to determine the optimal intensity by calculating the incidence of both complications at different levels of anticoagulation. METHODS: Data were collected on all patients with mechanical heart valves who have been seen at four regional Dutch anticoagulation clinics since 1985. The primary outcome events were episodes of thromboembolism or major bleeding. The intensity-specific incidence of each type of event was calculated as the number of events that occurred at a certain intensity of anticoagulation (expressed in terms of the international normalized ratio [INR]) divided by the number of patient-years during which the INR was at this level in the total patient population. RESULTS: A total of 1608 patients were followed during 6475 patient-years. Cerebral embolism occurred in 43 patients (0.68 per 100 patient-years) and peripheral embolism in 2 (0.03 per 100 patient-years). Intracranial and spinal bleeding occurred in 36 patients (0.57 per 100 patient-years) and major extracranial bleeding in 128 (2.1 per 100 patient-years). The optimal intensity of anticoagulation, at which the incidence of both complications was lowest, was achieved when the INR was between 2.5 and 4.9. CONCLUSIONS: The intensity of anticoagulant therapy for patients with prosthetic heart valves is optimal when the INR is between 2.5 and 4.9. To achieve this level of anticoagulation, a target INR of 3.0 to 4.0 is recommended.