Jianping Xie

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores do not reflect changes in HCC risk resulting from liver disease progression/regression over time. We aimed to develop and validate two novel prediction models using multivariate longitudinal data, with or without cell-free DNA (cfDNA) signatures. METHODS: A total of 13,728 patients from two nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohorts, the majority of whom had chronic hepatitis B, were enrolled. aMAP score, as one of the most promising HCC prediction models, was evaluated for each patient. Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was used to derive multi-modal cfDNA fragmentomics features. A longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to model longitudinal profiles of patient biomarkers and estimate the risk of HCC development. RESULTS: We developed and externally validated two novel HCC prediction models with a greater accuracy, termed aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores. The aMAP-2 score, calculated with longitudinal data on the aMAP score and alpha-fetoprotein values during an up to 8-year follow-up, performed superbly in the training and external validation cohorts (AUC 0.83-0.84). The aMAP-2 score showed further improvement and accurately divided aMAP-defined high-risk patients into two groups with 5-year cumulative HCC incidences of 23.4% and 4.1%, respectively (p = 0.0065). The aMAP-2 Plus score, which incorporates cfDNA signatures (nucleosome, fragment and motif scores), optimized the prediction of HCC development, especially for patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.85-0.89). Importantly, the stepwise approach (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) stratified patients with cirrhosis into two groups, comprising 90% and 10% of the cohort, with an annual HCC incidence of 0.8% and 12.5%, respectively (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores are highly accurate in predicting HCC. The stepwise application of aMAP scores provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at a high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

Estradiol (E2) is a major determinant of gender-based differences in the development of hepatic fibrosis. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are endogenous 19-25 nucleotide, noncoding, single-stranded RNAs that regulate gene expression by blocking the translation or decreasing the stability of mRNAs and play an important role in liver fibrosis. The mechanisms underlying the regulation of miRNAs by E2 remain largely unknown. In this study, miR-19b levels were higher and were associated with lower GRB2 mRNA and protein levels in female rats more than in male rats. We also showed that miR-19b levels were down-regulated, were associated with the up-regulation of GRB2 mRNA and protein levels in PS (porcine serum-induced hepatic fibrosis) versus NS (normal control) groups and were up-regulated when associated with the down-regulation of GRB2 mRNA and protein levels in PS + E2 versus PS and in aHSC + E2 (estradiol treated aHSC) versus aHSC groups. MiR-19b expression inhibited cell proliferation in aHSCs, and also down-regulated GRB2 protein expression. The overexpression of miR-19b inhibited cell growth and suppressed COL1A1 protein levels by decreasing the levels of GRB2. However, the forced expression of GRB2 partly rescued the effect of miR-19b in the cells, attenuated cell proliferation, and suppressed the GRB2 protein level by up-regulating the levels of GRB2. Taken together, these findings will shed light on the role of miR-19b in regulating aHSC proliferation via the miR-19b/GRB2 axis. This newly identified miR-19b/GRB2 interaction provided novel insights into the suppressive effect of E2 on HSC proliferation and might facilitate the development of therapies targeting hepatic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is typically associated with metabolic dysfunction, but its impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIM: To study the effect of obesity on HCC development in patients with CHB receiving antiviral therapy. METHODS: We included patients from a Chinese multicentre, prospective, observational, treated CHB cohort in this study. General obesity was evaluated by body-mass index (BMI). Central obesity was evaluated by waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio. RESULTS: A total of 5754 nucleos(t)ide analogue treated patients were enrolled in the analysis. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.9%. Waist-to-height ratio performed better in predicting HCC development than BMI, waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio. Patients with central obesity (defined as waist-to-height ratio >0.5) had significantly higher 5-year incidence of HCC than those without central obesity in the overall population (3.9% vs 2.1%, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.06, P = 0.0001) and 745 propensity score matched pairs (4.7% vs 2.3%, HR: 2.04, P = 0.026), respectively. Besides cirrhosis status and aMAP HCC risk score, central obesity was also independently associated with HCC risk (HR: 1.63, P = 0.013). Waist-to-height ratio gain within 1 year was associated with a significantly higher HCC risk with an adjusted HR value of 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.12-3.13, P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Central obesity, evaluated by the waist-to-height ratio, was associated with a twofold increase in HCC risk among CHB patients receiving antiviral treatment, highlighting the important role of abnormal metabolic function in the progression of liver disease.

High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) is essential for the pathogenesis of liver injury and liver fibrosis. We previously revealed that miR-146b promotes hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) activation and proliferation. Nevertheless, the potential mechanisms are still unknown. Herein, HMGB1 increased HSCs proliferation and COL1A1 and α-SMA protein levels. However, the knockdown of miR-146b inhibited HSCs proliferation and COL1A1 and α-SMA protein levels induced via HMGB1 treatment. miR-146b was upregulated by HMGB1 and miR-146b targeted hepatocyte nuclear factor 1A (HNF1A) 3′-untranslated region (3′UTR) to modulate its expression negatively. Further, we confirmed that HMGB1 might elicit miR-146b expression via p65 within HSCs. Knockdown or block of HMGB1 relieved the CCl4-induced liver fibrosis. In fibrotic liver tissues, miR-146b expression was positively correlated with p65 mRNA, but HNF1A mRNA was inversely correlated with p65, and miR-146b expression. In summary, our findings suggest that HMGB1/p65/miR-146b/HNF1A signaling exerts a crucial effect on liver fibrogenesis via the regulation of HSC function.