Stephen W. Lagakos

The analysis of subgroups is often used as a way to glean additional information from data sets. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach and new Journal policies concerning the reporting of subgroup analyses are discussed in this article.

Zidovudine (AZT) is a potent inhibitor of the replication of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and it has been shown to improve survival in advanced HIV disease. We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial in adults with asymptomatic HIV infection who had CD4+ cell counts of fewer than 500 per cubic millimeter on entry into the study. The subjects (92 percent male) were randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups: placebo (428 subjects); zidovudine, 500 mg per day (453); or zidovudine, 1500 mg per day (457). After a mean follow-up of 55 weeks (range, 19 to 107), 33 of the subjects assigned to placebo had the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), as compared with 11 of those assigned to receive 500 mg of zidovudine (P = 0.002; relative risk, 2.8; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 5.6) and 14 of those assigned to receive 1500 mg of zidovudine (P = 0.05; relative risk, 1.9; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.0 to 3.5). In the three treatment groups, the rates of progression (per 100 person-years) to either AIDS or advanced AIDS-related complex were 7.6, 3.6, and 4.3, respectively. As compared with those assigned to placebo, the subjects in the zidovudine groups had significant increases in the number of CD4+ cells and significant declines in p24 antigen levels. In the 1500-mg zidovudine group, severe hematologic toxicity (anemia or neutropenia) was more frequent than in the other groups (P less than 0.0001). In the 500-mg zidovudine group, nausea was the only toxicity that was significantly more frequent (in 3.3 percent) than in the placebo group (P = 0.001). We conclude that zidovudine is safe and effective in persons with asymptomatic HIV infection and fewer than 500 CD4+ cells per cubic millimeter. Additional study will be required to determine whether such treatment will ultimately improve survival for persons infected with HIV.

Subgroup analyses are an important part of the analysis of a comparative clinical trial. However, they are commonly overinterpreted14 and can lead to further research that is misguided or, worse, to suboptimal patient care.Consider a randomized, clinical trial designed to determine whether a new treatment is more effective than an established treatment and assessed with a test, based on all randomized patients, of the null hypothesis that the treatments have equal efficacy, as measured in terms of the primary end point. Then, subgroup analyses are conducted to assess whether different types of patients respond differently to the new . . .

CONTEXT: Postnatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV) via breastfeeding reverses gains achieved by perinatal antiretroviral interventions. OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and safety of 2 infant feeding strategies for the prevention of postnatal mother-to-child HIV transmission. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A 2 x 2 factorial randomized clinical trial with peripartum (single-dose nevirapine vs placebo) and postpartum infant feeding (formula vs breastfeeding with infant zidovudine prophylaxis) interventions. In Botswana between March 27, 2001, and October 29, 2003, 1200 HIV-positive pregnant women were randomized from 4 district hospitals. Infants were evaluated at birth, monthly until age 7 months, at age 9 months, then every third month through age 18 months. INTERVENTION: All of the mothers received zidovudine 300 mg orally twice daily from 34 weeks' gestation and during labor. Mothers and infants were randomized to receive single-dose nevirapine or placebo. Infants were randomized to 6 months of breastfeeding plus prophylactic infant zidovudine (breastfed plus zidovudine), or formula feeding plus 1 month of infant zidovudine (formula fed). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary efficacy (HIV infection by age 7 months and HIV-free survival by age 18 months) and safety (occurrence of infant adverse events by 7 months of age) end points were evaluated in 1179 infants. RESULTS: The 7-month HIV infection rates were 5.6% (32 infants in the formula-fed group) vs 9.0% (51 infants in the breastfed plus zidovudine group) (P = .04; 95% confidence interval for difference, -6.4% to -0.4%). Cumulative mortality or HIV infection rates at 18 months were 80 infants (13.9%, formula fed) vs 86 infants (15.1% breastfed plus zidovudine) (P = .60; 95% confidence interval for difference, -5.3% to 2.9%). Cumulative infant mortality at 7 months was significantly higher for the formula-fed group than for the breastfed plus zidovudine group (9.3% vs 4.9%; P = .003), but this difference diminished beyond month 7 such that the time-to-mortality distributions through age 18 months were not significantly different (P = .21). CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding with zidovudine prophylaxis was not as effective as formula feeding in preventing postnatal HIV transmission, but was associated with a lower mortality rate at 7 months. Both strategies had comparable HIV-free survival at 18 months. These results demonstrate the risk of formula feeding to infants in sub-Saharan Africa, and the need for studies of alternative strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00197587.

BACKGROUND: A single dose of nevirapine during labor reduces perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) but often leads to viral nevirapine resistance mutations in mothers and infants. METHODS: We studied the response to nevirapine-based antiretroviral treatment among women and infants who had previously been randomly assigned to a single, peripartum dose of nevirapine or placebo in a trial in Botswana involving the prevention of the transmission of HIV-1 from mother to child. All women were treated with antenatal zidovudine. The primary end point for mothers and infants was virologic failure by the 6-month visit after initiation of antiretroviral treatment, estimated within groups by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Of 218 women who started antiretroviral treatment, 112 had received a single dose of nevirapine and 106 had received placebo. By the 6-month visit after the initiation of antiretroviral treatment, 5.0% of the women who had received placebo had virologic failure, as compared with 18.4% of those who had received a single dose of nevirapine (P=0.002). Among 60 women starting antiretroviral treatment within 6 months after receiving placebo or a single dose of nevirapine, no women in the placebo group and 41.7% in the nevirapine group had virologic failure (P<0.001). In contrast, virologic failure rates did not differ significantly between the placebo group and the nevirapine group among 158 women starting antiretroviral treatment 6 months or more post partum (7.8% and 12.0%, respectively; P=0.39). Thirty infants also began antiretroviral treatment (15 in the placebo group and 15 in the nevirapine group). Virologic failure by the 6-month visit occurred in significantly more infants who had received a single dose of nevirapine than in infants who had received placebo (P<0.001). Maternal and infant findings did not change qualitatively by 12 and 24 months after the initiation of antiretroviral treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Women who received a single dose of nevirapine to prevent perinatal transmission of HIV-1 had higher rates of virologic failure with subsequent nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy than did women without previous exposure to nevirapine. However, this applied only when nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy was initiated within 6 months after receipt of a single, peripartum dose of nevirapine. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00197587 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).