F. E. Neal

To investigate the effect of different treatments for Hodgkin's disease on the risk of leukemia, we used an international collaborative group of cancer registries and hospitals to perform a case-control study of 163 cases of leukemia following treatment for Hodgkin's disease. For each case patient with leukemia, three matched controls were chosen who had been treated for Hodgkin's disease but in whom leukemia did not develop. The use of chemotherapy alone to treat Hodgkin's disease was associated with a relative risk of leukemia of 9.0 (95 percent confidence interval, 4.1 to 20) as compared with the use of radiotherapy alone. Patients treated with both had a relative risk of 7.7 (95 percent confidence interval, 3.9 to 15). After treatment with more than six cycles of combinations including procarbazine and mechlorethamine, the risk of leukemia was 14-fold higher than after radiotherapy alone. The use of radiotherapy in combination with chemotherapy did not increase the risk of leukemia above that produced by the use of chemotherapy alone, but there was a dose-related increase in the risk of leukemia in patients who received radiotherapy alone. The peak in the risk of leukemia came about five years after chemotherapy began, and a large excess persisted for at least eight years after it ended. After adjusting for drug regimen, we found that patients who had undergone splenectomy had at least double the risk of leukemia of patients who had not, and an advanced stage of Hodgkin's disease carried a somewhat higher risk of leukemia than Stage I disease. We conclude that chemotherapy for Hodgkin's disease greatly increases the risk of leukemia and that this increased risk appears to be dose-related and unaffected by concomitant radiotherapy. In addition, the risk is greater for patients with more advanced stages of Hodgkin's disease and for those who undergo splenectomy.

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The risk of cancer associated with a broad range of organ doses was estimated in an international study of women with cervical cancer. Among 150,000 patients reported to one of 19 population-based cancer registries or treated in any of 20 oncology clinics, 4188 women with second cancers and 6880 matched controls were selected for detailed study. Radiation doses for selected organs were reconstructed for each patient on the basis of her original radiotherapy records. Very high doses, on the order of several hundred gray, were found to increase the risk of cancers of the bladder [relative risk (RR) = 4.0], rectum (RR = 1.8), vagina (RR = 2.7), and possibly bone (RR = 1.3), uterine corpus (RR = 1.3), cecum (RR = 1.5), and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (RR = 2.5). For all female genital cancers taken together, a sharp dose-response gradient was observed, reaching fivefold for doses more than 150 Gy. Several gray increased the risk of stomach cancer (RR = 2.1) and leukemia (RR = 2.0). Although cancer of the pancreas was elevated, there was no evidence of a dose-dependent risk. Cancer of the kidney was significantly increased among 15-year survivors. A nonsignificant twofold risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer was observed following an average dose of only 0.11 Gy. Breast cancer was not increased overall, despite an average dose of 0.31 Gy and 953 cases available for evaluation (RR = 0.9); there was, however, a weak suggestion of a dose response among women whose ovaries had been surgically removed. Doses greater than 6 Gy to the ovaries reduced breast cancer risk by 44%. A significant deficit of ovarian cancer was observed within 5 years of radiotherapy; in contrast, a dose response was suggested among 10-year survivors. Radiation was not found to increase the overall risk of cancers of the small intestine, colon, ovary, vulva, connective tissue, breast, Hodgkin's disease, multiple myeloma, or chronic lymphocytic leukemia. For most cancers associated with radiation, risks were highest among long-term survivors and appeared concentrated among women irradiated at relatively younger ages.

An international collaborative group of cancer registries and hospitals identified 114 cases of leukemia following ovarian cancer. We investigated the possible etiologic role of chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and other factors, using a case-control study design, with three controls matched to each case of leukemia. Chemotherapy alone was associated with a relative risk of 12 (95 percent confidence interval, 4.4 to 32), as compared with surgery alone, and patients treated with both chemotherapy and radiotherapy had a relative risk of 10 (95 percent confidence interval, 3.4 to 28). Radiotherapy alone did not produce a significant increase in risk as compared with surgery alone. The risk of leukemia was greatest four or five years after chemotherapy began, and the risk was elevated for at least eight years after the cessation of chemotherapy. The drugs cyclophosphamide, chlorambucil, melphalan, thiotepa, and treosulfan were independently associated with significantly increased risks of leukemia, as was the combination of doxorubicin hydrochloride and cisplatin. Chlorambucil and melphalan were the most leukemogenic drugs, followed by thiotepa; cyclophosphamide and treosulfan were the weakest leukemogens, and the effect per gram was substantially lower at high doses than at lower doses. The extent to which the relative risks of leukemia are offset by differences in chemotherapeutic effectiveness is not known.

Eleven population-based cancer registries tabulated second cancers among 133,411 patients diagnosed with testicular cancer, ovarian cancer or Hodgkin's disease between 1945 and 1984. Overall, 3,157 second cancers were observed, as compared with 2,420 expected at least one year after the first cancer. Survivors of testicular and ovarian cancer experienced 30% and 20% more cancers respectively than the general population comparison group, and patients previously diagnosed with Hodgkin's disease had an 80% excess of cancer. No information was available either on treatment for the first cancer, or other risk factors. However, temporal patterns in the risk of specific second cancers were analysed, with particular reference to the possible role of therapy for the first cancer. Leukaemia of the acute or non-lymphatic type, which has been previously linked to alkylating agent therapy, occurred in excess following all 3 first cancers, as did non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (overall relative risks of 6.1 and 1.8 respectively, with considerably higher relative risks following Hodgkin's disease). Other cancers for which important and plausibly therapy-induced excesses occurred were lung cancer following Hodgkin's disease (relative risk 1.9), breast cancer following Hodgkin's disease (relative risk 1.4) and bladder cancer following ovarian cancer and Hodgkin's disease (relative risks 1.7 and 2.2 in women, respectively). Rarer sites at which striking excesses occurred were the salivary gland, thyroid, bone and connective tissue. There were smaller, but clear excesses for cancers of the rectum and colon following ovarian cancer and testicular cancer, skin cancer following Hodgkin's disease, and kidney cancer following ovarian cancer. Overdiagnosis, misclassification of metastases and confounding by other risk factors were all considered as explanations of observed excesses. Nonetheless, it appeared that there are clear excess risks for cancers other than acute leukaemia which must be ascribed to therapy for the first cancer, especially in view of the possible under-reporting in registry material. Case-control studies are under way to provide information on the role of specific aspects of therapy.