Gill Lawrence

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. METHODS: Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. RESULTS: Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

Rapid increases in cervical adenocarcinoma incidence have been observed in Western countries in recent decades. Postulated explanations include an increasing specificity of subtype-the capability to diagnose the disease, an inability of cytologic screening to reduce adenocarcinoma, and heterogeneity in cofactors related to persistent human papillomavirus infection. This study examines the possible contribution of these factors in relation with trends observed in Europe. Age-period-cohort models were fitted to cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trends in women ages <75 in 13 European countries. Age-adjusted adenocarcinoma incidence rates increased throughout Europe, the rate of increase ranging from around 0.5% per annum in Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland to >/=3% in Finland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The increases first affected generations born in the early 1930s through the mid-1940s, with risk invariably higher in women born in the mid-1960s relative to those born 20 years earlier. The magnitude of this risk ratio varied considerably from around 7 in Slovenia to almost unity in France. Declines in period-specific risk were observed in United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden, primarily among women ages >30. Whereas increasing specificity of subtype with time may be responsible for some of the increases in several countries, the changing distribution and prevalence of persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus types, alongside an inability to detect cervical adenocarcinoma within screening programs, would accord with the temporal profile observed in Europe. The homogeneity of trends in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in birth cohort is consistent with the notion that they share a similar etiology irrespective of the differential capability of screen detection. Screening may have had at least some impact in reducing cervical adenocarcinoma incidence in several countries during the 1990s.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether rate of reoperation after breast conserving surgery is associated with patients' characteristics and investigate whether reoperation rates vary among English NHS trusts. DESIGN: Cohort study using patient level data from hospital episode statistics. SETTING: English NHS trusts. PARTICIPANTS: Adult women who had breast conserving surgery between 1 April 2005 and 31 March 2008. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Reoperation rates after primary breast conserving surgery within 3 months, adjusted using logistic regression for tumour type, age, comorbidity, and socioeconomic deprivation. Tumours were grouped by whether a carcinoma in situ component was coded at the time of the primary breast conserving surgery. RESULTS: 55,297 women had primary breast conserving surgery in 156 NHS trusts during the three year period. 11,032 (20.0%, 95% confidence interval 19.6% to 20.3%) women had at least one reoperation. 10,212 (18.5%, 18.2% to 18.8%) had one reoperation only; of these, 5943 (10.7%, 10.5% to 11.0%) had another breast conserving procedure and 4269 (7.7%, 7.5% to 7.9%) had a mastectomy. Of the 45,793 women with isolated invasive disease, 8229 (18.0%) had at least one reoperation. In comparison, 2803 (29.5%) of the 9504 women with carcinoma in situ had at least one reoperation (adjusted odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.8 to 2.0). Substantial differences were found in the adjusted reoperation rates among the NHS trusts (10th and 90th centiles 12.2% and 30.2%). CONCLUSION: One in five women who had breast conserving surgery in England had a reoperation. Reoperation was nearly twice as likely when the tumour had a carcinoma in situ component coded. Women should be informed of this reoperation risk when deciding on the type of surgical treatment of their breast cancer.

Determination of survival time among persons with screen-detected cancer is subject to lead time and length biases. The authors propose a simple correction for lead time, assuming an exponential distribution of the preclinical screen-detectable period. Assuming two latent categories of tumors, one of which is more prone to screen detection and correspondingly less prone to death from the cancer in question, the authors have developed a strategy of sensitivity analysis for various magnitudes of length bias. Here they demonstrate these methods using a series of 25,962 breast cancer cases (1988-2004) from the West Midlands, United Kingdom.