Ivana Šestak

PURPOSE: Risk of distant recurrence (DR) among women with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive early breast cancer is the major determinant of recommendations for or against chemotherapy. It is frequently estimated using the Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS). The PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) score provides an alternative approach, which also identifies intrinsic subtypes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: mRNA from 1,017 patients with ER-positive primary breast cancer treated with anastrozole or tamoxifen in the ATAC trial was assessed for ROR using the NanoString nCounter. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests and concordance indices (c indices) were used to assess the prognostic information provided beyond that of a clinical treatment score (CTS) by RS, ROR, or IHC4, an index of DR risk derived from immunohistochemical assessment of ER, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and Ki67. RESULTS: ROR added significant prognostic information beyond CTS in all patients (Δ LR-χ(2) = 33.9; P < .001) and in all four subgroups: node negative, node positive, HER2 negative, and HER2 negative/node negative; more information was added by ROR than by RS. C indices in the HER2-negative/node-negative subgroup were 0.73, 0.76, and 0.78 for CTS, CTS plus RS, and CTS plus ROR, respectively. More patients were scored as high risk and fewer as intermediate risk by ROR than by RS. Relatively similar prognostic information was added by ROR and IHC4 in all patients but more by ROR in the HER2-negative/node-negative group. CONCLUSION: ROR provides more prognostic information in endocrine-treated patients with ER-positive, node-negative disease than RS, with better differentiation of intermediate- and higher-risk groups.

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors effectively prevent breast cancer recurrence and development of new contralateral tumours in postmenopausal women. We assessed the efficacy and safety of the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women who are at high risk of the disease. METHODS: Between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years from 18 countries into an international, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial. To be eligible, women had to be at increased risk of breast cancer (judged on the basis of specific criteria). Eligible women were randomly assigned (1:1) by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or matching placebo every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by country and was done with blocks (size six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation; only the trial statistician was unmasked. The primary endpoint was histologically confirmed breast cancer (invasive cancers or non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ). Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN31488319. FINDINGS: 1920 women were randomly assigned to receive anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 5·0 years (IQR 3·0-7·1), 40 women in the anastrozole group (2%) and 85 in the placebo group (4%) had developed breast cancer (hazard ratio 0·47, 95% CI 0·32-0·68, p<0·0001). The predicted cumulative incidence of all breast cancers after 7 years was 5·6% in the placebo group and 2·8% in the anastrozole group. 18 deaths were reported in the anastrozole group and 17 in the placebo group, and no specific causes were more common in one group than the other (p=0·836). INTERPRETATION: Anastrozole effectively reduces incidence of breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women. This finding, along with the fact that most of the side-effects associated with oestrogen deprivation were not attributable to treatment, provides support for the use of anastrozole in postmenopausal women at high risk of breast cancer. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Sanofi-Aventis, and AstraZeneca.

BACKGROUND: Initial results of the UK/ANZ DCIS (UK, Australia, and New Zealand ductal carcinoma in situ) trial suggested that radiotherapy reduced new breast events of ipsilateral invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) compared with no radiotherapy, but no significant effects were noted with tamoxifen. Here, we report long-term results of this trial. METHODS: Women with completely locally excised DCIS were recruited into a randomised 2×2 factorial trial of radiotherapy, tamoxifen, or both. Randomisation was independently done for each of the two treatments (radiotherapy and tamoxifen), stratified by screening assessment centre, and blocked in groups of four. The recommended dose for radiation was 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks (2 Gy per day on weekdays), and tamoxifen was prescribed at a dose of 20 mg daily for 5 years. Elective decision to withhold or provide one of the treatments was permitted. The endpoints of primary interest were invasive ipsilateral new breast events for the radiotherapy comparison and any new breast event, including contralateral disease and DCIS, for tamoxifen. Analysis of each of the two treatment comparisons was restricted to patients who were randomly assigned to that treatment. Analyses were by intention to treat. All trial drugs have been completed and this study is in long-term follow-up. This study is registered, number ISRCTN99513870. FINDINGS: Between May, 1990, and August, 1998, 1701 women were randomly assigned to radiotherapy and tamoxifen, radiotherapy alone, tamoxifen alone, or to no adjuvant treatment. Seven patients had protocol violations and thus 1694 patients were available for analysis. After a median follow-up of 12·7 years (IQR 10·9-14·7), 376 (163 invasive [122 ipsilateral vs 39 contralateral], 197 DCIS [174 ipsilateral vs 17 contralateral], and 16 of unknown invasiveness or laterality) breast cancers were diagnosed. Radiotherapy reduced the incidence of all new breast events (hazard ratio [HR] 0·41, 95% CI 0·30-0·56; p<0·0001), reducing the incidence of ipsilateral invasive disease (0·32, 0·19-0·56; p<0·0001) as well as ipsilateral DCIS (0·38, 0·22-0·63; p<0·0001), but having no effect on contralateral breast cancer (0·84, 0·45-1·58; p=0·6). Tamoxifen reduced the incidence of all new breast events (HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·58-0·88; p=0·002), reducing recurrent ipsilateral DCIS (0·70, 0·51-0·86; p=0·03) and contralateral tumours (0·44, 0·25-0·77; p=0·005), but having no effect on ipsilateral invasive disease (0·95, 0·66-1·38; p=0·8). No data on adverse events except cause of death were collected for this trial. INTERPRETATION: This updated analysis confirms the long-term beneficial effect of radiotherapy and reports a benefit for tamoxifen in reducing local and contralateral new breast events for women with DCIS treated by complete local excision. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

BACKGROUND: The four intrinsic subtypes of breast cancer, defined by differential expression of 50 genes (PAM50), have been shown to be predictive of risk of recurrence and benefit of hormonal therapy and chemotherapy. Here we describe the development of Prosigna™, a PAM50-based subtype classifier and risk model on the NanoString nCounter Dx Analysis System intended for decentralized testing in clinical laboratories. METHODS: 514 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) breast cancer patient samples were used to train prototypical centroids for each of the intrinsic subtypes of breast cancer on the NanoString platform. Hierarchical cluster analysis of gene expression data was used to identify the prototypical centroids defined in previous PAM50 algorithm training exercises. 304 FFPE patient samples from a well annotated clinical cohort in the absence of adjuvant systemic therapy were then used to train a subtype-based risk model (i.e. Prosigna ROR score). 232 samples from a tamoxifen-treated patient cohort were used to verify the prognostic accuracy of the algorithm prior to initiating clinical validation studies. RESULTS: The gene expression profiles of each of the four Prosigna subtype centroids were consistent with those previously published using the PCR-based PAM50 method. Similar to previously published classifiers, tumor samples classified as Luminal A by Prosigna had the best prognosis compared to samples classified as one of the three higher-risk tumor subtypes. The Prosigna Risk of Recurrence (ROR) score model was verified to be significantly associated with prognosis as a continuous variable and to add significant information over both commonly available IHC markers and Adjuvant! Online. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the training and verification data sets show that the FDA-cleared and CE marked Prosigna test provides an accurate estimate of the risk of distant recurrence in hormone receptor positive breast cancer and is also capable of identifying a tumor's intrinsic subtype that is consistent with the previously published PCR-based PAM50 assay. Subsequent analytical and clinical validation studies confirm the clinical accuracy and technical precision of the Prosigna PAM50 assay in a decentralized setting.