Hannaleena Eerola

Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers. We have previously developed a model (BOADICEA) under which susceptibility to breast cancer is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, as well as by the joint multiplicative effects of many genes (polygenic component). We have now updated BOADICEA using additional family data from two UK population-based studies of breast cancer and family data from BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers identified by 22 population-based studies of breast or ovarian cancer. The combined data set includes 2785 families (301 BRCA1 positive and 236 BRCA2 positive). Incidences were smoothed using locally weighted regression techniques to avoid large variations between adjacent intervals. A birth cohort effect on the cancer risks was implemented, whereby each individual was assumed to develop cancer according to calendar period-specific incidences. The fitted model predicts that the average breast cancer risks in carriers increase in more recent birth cohorts. For example, the average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920-1929 and 58% among women born after 1950. The model was further extended to take into account the risks of male breast, prostate and pancreatic cancer, and to allow for the risk of multiple cancers. BOADICEA can be used to predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks to individuals with any family history, and has been implemented in a user-friendly Web-based program (http://www.srl.cam.ac.uk/genepi/boadicea/boadicea_home.html).

A significant proportion of familial breast cancers cannot be explained by mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. We applied a strategy to identify predisposition loci for breast cancer by using mathematical models to identify early somatic genetic deletions in tumor tissues followed by targeted linkage analysis. Comparative genomic hybridization was used to study 61 breast tumors from 37 breast cancer families with no identified BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Branching and phylogenetic tree models predicted that loss of 13q was one of the earliest genetic events in hereditary cancers. In a Swedish family with five breast cancer cases, all analyzed tumors showed distinct 13q deletions, with the minimal region of loss at 13q21-q22. Genotyping revealed segregation of a shared 13q21 germ-line haplotype in the family. Targeted linkage analysis was carried out in a set of 77 Finnish, Icelandic, and Swedish breast cancer families with no detected BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. A maximum parametric two-point logarithm of odds score of 2.76 was obtained for a marker at 13q21 (D13S1308, theta = 0.10). The multipoint logarithm of odds score under heterogeneity was 3.46. The results were further evaluated by simulation to assess the probability of obtaining significant evidence in favor of linkage by chance as well as to take into account the possible influence of the BRCA2 locus, located at a recombination fraction of 0.25 from the new locus. The simulation substantiated the evidence of linkage at D13S1308 (P < 0.0017). The results warrant studies of this putative breast cancer predisposition locus in other populations.