RD Gelber

PURPOSE: To define more uniform criteria for risk-based treatment assignment for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program (CTEP) of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) sponsored a workshop in September 1993. Participants included representatives from the Childrens Cancer Group (CCG), Pediatric Oncology Group (POG), Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI), St Jude Children's Research Hospital (SJCRH), and the CTEP. METHODS: Workshop participants presented and reviewed data from ALL clinical trials, using weighted averages to combine outcome data from different groups. RESULTS: For patients with B-precursor (ie, non-T, non-B) ALL, the standard-risk category (4-year event-free survival [EFS] rate, approximately 80%) will include patients 1 to 9 years of age with a WBC count at diagnosis less than 50,000/microL. The remaining patients will be classified as having high-risk ALL (4-year EFS rate, approximately 65%). For patients with T-cell ALL, different treatment strategies have yielded different conclusions concerning the prognostic significance of T-cell immunophenotype. Therefore, some groups/institutions will classify patients with T-cell ALL as high risk, while others will assign risk for patients with T-cell ALL based on the uniform age/WBC count criteria. Workshop participants agreed that the risk category of a patient may be modified by prognostic factors in addition to age and WBC count criteria, and that a common set of prognostic factors should be uniformly obtained, including DNA index (DI), cytogenetics, early response to treatment (eg, day-14 bone marrow), immunophenotype, and CNS status. CONCLUSIONS: The more uniform approach to risk-based treatment assignment and to collection of specific prognostic factors should increase the efficiency of future ALL clinical research.

Studies of radiation therapy and/or surgery in the treatment of cancer frequently use actuarial methods to estimate curves of time to local failure and compare two such curves with statistical methods originally developed for survival data. In such analyses, patients who fail first in distant sites or die before local failure are considered censored for time to local failure. While the arithmetic of these calculations is usually correct, the interpretation of the results is almost universally incorrect. For example, an actuarial Kaplan-Meier curve of time to breast recurrence after breast conserving treatment consistently overestimates the percentage of patients who would benefit from a subsequent mastectomy. Actuarial methods require the assumption that time to local failure and time to distant failure are statistically independent. For most human malignancies this is not a reasonable assumption, since there are always some patient subgroups at high risk of both local and distant failure and some patient subgroups at low risk for either type of failure. Without the assumption of independence, the time to local failure distribution is not well defined. The basic problem is that estimating time to local failure falls into the category of analyzing "competing risks," since the various causes of failure are competing for the same patient. For this reason, the effects of a particular treatment on local failure cannot be assessed separately from its effects on distant failure. This report explains the concepts of statistical independence, nonidentifiability, and competing risks and illustrates the pitfalls of using actuarial methods to assess local tumor control.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Between 1972 and 1981, 93 patients with extremity osteogenic sarcoma without detectable metastatic disease were treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Fifty-two patients remain continuously free of disease. Thirty-two of the 41 patients who relapsed had pulmonary metastases only and 26 underwent thoracotomy to remove all metastatic disease. Complete resection was possible in 11 of 26 patients as defined by the removal of all macroscopic disease, no microscopic disease at resection margins, and no histologic evidence of pleural disruption by tumor. Nine of 11 patients are currently free of disease with a median duration of most recent remission of 42 months (range, 3-72 months). Four of these nine patients have had only one relapse. Only two of 15 patients with incomplete resection of metastatic disease defined by the above criteria are currently free of disease for 57 and 101 months. A significant difference in survival from initial relapse for patients made surgically free of disease using this stringent criteria was observed even when the result is stratified for time to first relapse and number of pulmonary nodules (p = 0.005). A subgroup of patients within the group undergoing thoracotomies who can be expected to have an improved survival has been defined.