Madhu Mazumdar

PURPOSE: To identify prognostic factors and a model predictive for survival in patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma (RCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The relationship between pretreatment clinical features and survival was studied in 670 patients with advanced RCC treated in 24 Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center clinical trials between 1975 and 1996. Clinical features were first examined univariately. A stepwise modeling approach based on Cox proportional hazards regression was then used to form a multivariate model. The predictive performance of the model was internally validated through a two-step nonparametric bootstrapping process. RESULTS: The median survival time was 10 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 11 months). Fifty-seven of 670 patients remain alive, and the median follow-up time for survivors was 33 months. Pretreatment features associated with a shorter survival in the multivariate analysis were low Karnofsky performance status (<80%), high serum lactate dehydrogenase (> 1.5 times upper limit of normal), low hemoglobin (< lower limit of normal), high "corrected" serum calcium (> 10 mg/dL), and absence of prior nephrectomy. These were used as risk factors to categorize patients into three different groups. The median time to death in the 25% of patients with zero risk factors (favorable-risk) was 20 months. Fifty-three percent of the patients had one or two risk factors (intermediate-risk), and the median survival time in this group was 10 months. Patients with three or more risk factors (poor-risk), who comprised 22% of the patients, had a median survival time of 4 months. CONCLUSIONS: Five prognostic factors for predicting survival were identified and used to categorize patients with metastatic RCC into three risk groups, for which the median survival times were separated by 6 months or more. These risk categories can be used in clinical trial design and interpretation and in patient management. The low long-term survival rate emphasizes the priority of clinical investigation to identify more effective therapy.

PURPOSE: To define outcome data and prognostic criteria for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) treated with interferon-alfa as initial systemic therapy. The data can be applied to design and interpretation of clinical trials of new agents and treatment programs against this refractory malignancy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Four hundred sixty-three patients with advanced RCC administered interferon-alpha as first-line systemic therapy on six prospective clinical trials were the subjects of this retrospective analysis. Three risk categories for predicting survival were identified on the basis of five pretreatment clinical features by a stratified Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The median overall survival time was 13 months. The median time to progression was 4.7 months. Five variables were used as risk factors for short survival: low Karnofsky performance status, high lactate dehydrogenase, low serum hemoglobin, high corrected serum calcium, and time from initial RCC diagnosis to start of interferon-alpha therapy of less than one year. Each patient was assigned to one of three risk groups: those with zero risk factors (favorable risk), those with one or two (intermediate risk), and those with three or more (poor risk). The median time to death of patients deemed favorable risk was 30 months. Median survival time in the intermediate-risk group was 14 months. In contrast, the poor-risk group had a median survival time of 5 months. CONCLUSION: Progression-free and overall survival with interferon-alpha treatment can be compared with new therapies in phase II and III clinical investigations. The prognostic model is suitable for risk stratification of phase III trials using interferon-alpha as the comparative treatment arm.

Purpose: Cisplatin-containing chemotherapy has dramatically improved the outlook for patients with metastatic germ cell tumors (GCT), and overall cure rates now exceed 80%. To make appropriate risk-based decisions about therapy and to facilitate collaborative trials, a simple prognostic factor-based staging classification is required.Materials: Collaborative groups from 10 countries provided clinical data on patients with metastatic GCT treated with cisplatin-containing chemotherapy. Multivariate analyses of prognostic factors for progression and survival were performed and models were validated on on independent data set.Results: Data were available on 5,202 patients with nonseminomatous GCT (NSGCT) and 660 patients with seminoma. Median follow-up time was 5 years, For NSGCT the following independent adverse factors were identified: mediastinal primary site; degree of elevation of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG), and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH); and presence of nonpulmonary visceral metastases (NPVM), such as liver, bone, and brain. For seminoma, the predominant adverse feature was the presence of NPVM. integration of these factors produced the following groupings: good prognosis, comprising 60% of GCT with a 91% (89% to 93%) 5-year survival rate; intermediate prognosis, comprising 26% of GCT with a 79% (75% to 83%) 5-year survival rate; and poor prognosis, comprising 14% of GCT (all with NSGCT) with a 48% (42% to 54%) 5-year survival rate.Conclusion: An easily applicable, clinically based, prognostic classification for GCT has been agreed on between all the major clinical trial groups who are presently active worldwide. This should be used in clinical practice and in the design and reporting of clinical trials to aid international collaboration and understanding. (C) 1997 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

PURPOSE: To describe survival in previously treated patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who are candidates for clinical trials of new agents as second-line therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The relationship between pretreatment clinical features and survival was studied in 251 patients with advanced RCC treated during 29 consecutive clinical trials between 1975 and 2002. Clinical features were first examined in univariate analyses, and then a stepwise modeling approach based on Cox regression was used to form a multivariate model. RESULTS: Median survival for the 251 patients was 10.2 months and differed according to year of treatment, with patients treated after 1990 showing longer survival. In this group, the median overall survival time was 12.7 months. Because the purpose of this analysis was to establish prognostic factors for present-day clinical trial design, prognostic factor analysis was performed on these patients. Pretreatment features associated with a shorter survival in the multivariate analysis were low Karnofsky performance status, low hemoglobin level, and high corrected serum calcium. These were used as risk factors to categorize patients into three different groups. The median time to death in patients with zero risk factors was 22 months. The median survival in patients with one of these prognostic factors was 11.9 months. Patients with two or three risk factors had a median survival of 5.4 months. CONCLUSION: Treatment with novel agents during a clinical trial is indicated for patients with metastatic RCC after progression to cytokine treatment. Three prognostic factors for predicting survival were used to categorize patients into risk groups. These risk categories can be used in clinical trial design and interpretation.