Sonia Saxena

BACKGROUND: The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. Understanding these geographical differences is crucial for formulating effective strategies for preventing and treating IBD. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. METHODS: We modelled mortality due to IBD using a standard Cause of Death Ensemble model including data mainly from vital registrations. To estimate the non-fatal burden, we used data presented in primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to ensure consistency between measures. Mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated. All of the estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). FINDINGS: In 2017, there were 6·8 million (95% UI 6·4-7·3) cases of IBD globally. The age-standardised prevalence rate increased from 79·5 (75·9-83·5) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 84·3 (79·2-89·9) per 100 000 population in 2017. The age-standardised death rate decreased from 0·61 (0·55-0·69) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0·51 (0·42-0·54) per 100 000 population in 2017. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 2017 occurred in high-income North America (422·0 [398·7-446·1] per 100 000) and the lowest age-standardised prevalence rates were observed in the Caribbean (6·7 [6·3-7·2] per 100 000 population). High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) locations had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate, while low SDI regions had the lowest age-standardised prevalence rate. At the national level, the USA had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (464·5 [438·6-490·9] per 100 000 population), followed by the UK (449·6 [420·6-481·6] per 100 000). Vanuatu had the highest age-standardised death rate in 2017 (1·8 [0·8-3·2] per 100 000 population) and Singapore had the lowest (0·08 [0·06-0·14] per 100 000 population). The total YLDs attributed to IBD almost doubled over the study period, from 0·56 million (0·39-0·77) in 1990 to 1·02 million (0·71-1·38) in 2017. The age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 26·5 (21·0-33·0) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 23·2 (19·1-27·8) per 100 000 population in 2017. INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of IBD increased substantially in many regions from 1990 to 2017, which might pose a substantial social and economic burden on governments and health systems in the coming years. Our findings can be useful for policy makers developing strategies to tackle IBD, including the education of specialised personnel to address the burden of this complex disease. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported national and regional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for the UK. Because of substantial variation in health within the UK, action to improve it requires comparable estimates of disease burden and risks at country and local levels. The slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy requires further investigation. We use GBD 2016 data on mortality, causes of death, and disability to analyse the burden of disease in the countries of the UK and within local authorities in England by deprivation quintile. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2016 to estimate years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and attributable risks from 1990 to 2016 for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, the UK, and 150 English Upper-Tier Local Authorities. We estimated the burden of disease by cause of death, condition, year, and sex. We analysed the association between burden of disease and socioeconomic deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We present results for all 264 GBD causes of death combined and the leading 20 specific causes, and all 84 GBD risks or risk clusters combined and 17 specific risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-adjusted YLLs in all UK countries in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, lung cancers, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Age-standardised rates of YLLs for all causes varied by two times between local areas in England according to levels of socioeconomic deprivation (from 14 274 per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval 12 791-15 875] in Blackpool to 6888 [6145-7739] in Wokingham). Some Upper-Tier Local Authorities, particularly those in London, did better than expected for their level of deprivation. Allowing for differences in age structure, more deprived Upper-Tier Local Authorities had higher attributable YLLs for most major risk factors in the GBD. The population attributable fractions for all-cause YLLs for individual major risk factors varied across Upper-Tier Local Authorities. Life expectancy and YLLs have improved more slowly since 2010 in all UK countries compared with 1990-2010. In nine of 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities, YLLs increased after 2010. For attributable YLLs, the rate of improvement slowed most substantially for cardiovascular disease and breast, colorectal, and lung cancers, and showed little change for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Morbidity makes an increasing contribution to overall burden in the UK compared with mortality. The age-standardised UK DALY rate for low back and neck pain (1795 [1258-2356]) was higher than for ischaemic heart disease (1200 [1155-1246]) or lung cancer (660 [642-679]). The leading causes of ill health (measured through YLDs) in the UK in 2016 were low back and neck pain, skin and subcutaneous diseases, migraine, depressive disorders, and sense organ disease. Age-standardised YLD rates varied much less than equivalent YLL rates across the UK, which reflects the relative scarcity of local data on causes of ill health. INTERPRETATION: These estimates at local, regional, and national level will allow policy makers to match resources and priorities to levels of burden and risk factors. Improvement in YLLs and life expectancy slowed notably after 2010, particularly in cardiovascular disease and cancer, and targeted actions are needed if the rate of improvement is to recover. A targeted policy response is also required to address the increasing proportion of burden due to morbidity, such as musculoskeletal problems and depression. Improving the quality and completeness of available data on these causes is an essential component of this response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

CONTEXT: Corticosteroids are the mainstay of medical therapies to induce remission in acute episodes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, evidence suggests that this may increase the risk of postoperative complications among patients with IBD who go on to have abdominal surgery. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of postoperative complications following abdominal surgery in patients with IBD on steroids at the time of abdominal surgery. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of observational studies. METHODS: We searched medical electronic databases for full journal articles published after 1965 reporting on postoperative complications in patients with IBD undergoing abdominal surgery provided they compared patients treated with steroids with those not on steroids. We hand searched the reference lists of all retrieved articles. Two independent reviewers extracted data from studies meeting the inclusion criteria and any discrepancies were resolved by discussion. We carried out fixed effects meta-analysis, funnel plot and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: A total of seven observational studies involving 1,532 patients met the inclusion criteria for risk of total complications, and five observational studies involving 1,714 patients met the inclusion criteria for risk of infectious complications. Pooled analysis showed an increased risk of all postoperative complications (OR 1.41, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.87), as well as an increased risk of postoperative infectious complications (OR 1.68, 95% confidence interval 1.24-2.28) among patients on steroids. Patients who received higher doses of perioperative oral steroids (>40 mg) had a higher risk of total complications (OR 2.04 (95% CI 1.28-3.26). CONCLUSIONS: There is an increased risk of total as well as infectious complications following the use of steroids in patients with IBD.

Objectives To compare the odds of depression in obese and overweight children with that in normal-weight children in the community. Design Systematic review and random-effect meta-analysis of observational studies. Data sources EMBASE, PubMed and PsychINFO electronic databases, published between January 2000 and January 2017. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Cross-sectional or longitudinal observational studies that recruited children (aged <18 years) drawn from the community who had their weight status classified by body mass index, using age-adjusted and sex-adjusted reference charts or the International Obesity Task Force age-sex specific cut-offs, and concurrent or prospective odds of depression were measured. Results Twenty-two studies representing 143 603 children were included in the meta-analysis. Prevalence of depression among obese children was 10.4%. Compared with normal-weight children, odds of depression were 1.32 higher (95% CI 1.17 to 1.50) in obese children. Among obese female children, odds of depression were 1.44 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.72) higher compared with that of normal-weight female children. No association was found between overweight children and depression (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.14) or among obese or overweight male subgroups and depression (OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.41% and 1.08, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.37, respectively). Subgroup analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies separately revealed childhood obesity was associated with both concurrent (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.45) and prospective odds (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.88) of depression. Conclusion We found strong evidence that obese female children have a significantly higher odds of depression compared with normal-weight female children, and this risk persists into adulthood. Clinicians should consider screening obese female children for symptoms of depression. Background Childhood mental illness is poorly recognised by healthcare providers and parents, despite half of all lifetime cases of diagnosable mental illness beginning by the age of 14 years. 1 Globally, depression is the leading cause of disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life years, in children aged 10–19 years. 2 Untreated, it is associated with poor school performance and social functioning, substance misuse, recurring depression in adulthood and increased suicide risk, which is the second leading cause of preventable death among young people. 3–6 The resulting cost to the National Health Service of treating depression is estimated at over £2 billion, and the wider social and economic impact of depression is likely to be considerable. 7