Xuelin Huang

Molecular profiling of tumors promises to advance the clinical management of cancer, but the benefits of integrating molecular data with traditional clinical variables have not been systematically studied. Here we retrospectively predict patient survival using diverse molecular data (somatic copy-number alteration, DNA methylation and mRNA, microRNA and protein expression) from 953 samples of four cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas project. We find that incorporating molecular data with clinical variables yields statistically significantly improved predictions (FDR < 0.05) for three cancers but those quantitative gains were limited (2.2-23.9%). Additional analyses revealed little predictive power across tumor types except for one case. In clinically relevant genes, we identified 10,281 somatic alterations across 12 cancer types in 2,928 of 3,277 patients (89.4%), many of which would not be revealed in single-tumor analyses. Our study provides a starting point and resources, including an open-access model evaluation platform, for building reliable prognostic and therapeutic strategies that incorporate molecular data.

Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence. Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100 000 women in 1975 and 27/100 000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years). Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is a sensitive gene quantification method that has been extensively used in biological and biomedical fields. The currently used methods for PCR data analysis, including the threshold cycle method and linear and nonlinear model-fitting methods, all require subtracting background fluorescence. However, the removal of background fluorescence can hardly be accurate and therefore can distort results. We propose a new method, the taking-difference linear regression method, to overcome this limitation. Briefly, for each two consecutive PCR cycles, we subtract the fluorescence in the former cycle from that in the latter cycle, transforming the n cycle raw data into n-1 cycle data. Then, linear regression is applied to the natural logarithm of the transformed data. Finally, PCR amplification efficiencies and the initial DNA molecular numbers are calculated for each reaction. This taking-difference method avoids the error in subtracting an unknown background, and thus it is more accurate and reliable. This method is easy to perform, and this strategy can be extended to all current methods for PCR data analysis.

Decitabine may open the chromatin structure of leukemia cells making them accessible to the calicheamicin epitope of gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO). A total of 110 patients (median age 70 years; range 27-89 years) were treated with decitabine and GO in a trial designed on model-based futility to accommodate subject heterogeneity: group 1: relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with complete remission duration (CRD) <1 year (N=28, 25%); group 2: relapsed/refractory AML with CRD ⩾1 year (N=5, 5%); group 3: untreated AML unfit for intensive chemotherapy or untreated myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) or untreated myelofibrosis (MF; N=57, 52%); and group 4: AML evolving from MDS or relapsed/refractory MDS or MF (N=20, 18%). Treatment consisted of decitabine 20 mg/m(2) daily for 5 days and GO 3 mg/m(2) on day 5. Post-induction therapy included five cycles of decitabine+GO followed by decitabine alone. Complete remission (CR)/CR with incomplete count recovery was achieved in 39 (35%) patients; group 1= 5/28 (17%), group 2=3/5 (60%), group 3=24/57 (42%) and group 4=7/20 (35%). The 8-week mortality in groups 3 and 4 was 16% and 10%, respectively. Common drug-related adverse events included nausea, mucositis and hemorrhage. Decitabine and GO improved the response rate but not overall survival compared with historical outcomes in untreated AML ⩾60 years.

BACKGROUND: The cost of DNA sequencing has undergone a dramatical reduction in the past decade. As a result, sequencing technologies have been increasingly applied to genomic research. RNA-Seq is becoming a common technique for surveying gene expression based on DNA sequencing. As it is not clear how increased sequencing capacity has affected measurement accuracy of mRNA, we sought to investigate that relationship. RESULT: We empirically evaluate the accuracy of repeated gene expression measurements using RNA-Seq. We identify library preparation steps prior to DNA sequencing as the main source of error in this process. Studying three datasets, we show that the accuracy indeed improves with the sequencing depth. However, the rate of improvement as a function of sequence reads is generally slower than predicted by the binomial distribution. We therefore used the beta-binomial distribution to model the overdispersion. The overdispersion parameters we introduced depend explicitly on the number of reads so that the resulting statistical uncertainty is consistent with the empirical data that measurement accuracy increases with the sequencing depth. The overdispersion parameters were determined by maximizing the likelihood. We shown that our modified beta-binomial model had lower false discovery rate than the binomial or the pure beta-binomial models. CONCLUSION: We proposed a novel form of overdispersion guaranteeing that the accuracy improves with sequencing depth. We demonstrated that the new form provides a better fit to the data.