Juhee Song

BACKGROUND: Each year, the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network examines the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing medically attended acute respiratory illnesses caused by influenza. METHODS: Patients with acute respiratory illnesses of ≤ 7 days' duration were enrolled at ambulatory care facilities in 5 communities. Specimens were collected and tested for influenza by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Receipt of influenza vaccine was defined based on documented evidence of vaccination in medical records or immunization registries. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated in adjusted logistic regression models by comparing the vaccination coverage in those who tested positive for influenza with those who tested negative. RESULTS: The 2011-2012 season was mild and peaked late, with circulation of both type A viruses and both lineages of type B. Overall adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36-56) in preventing medically attended influenza; vaccine effectiveness was 65% (95% CI, 44-79) against type A (H1N1) pdm09 but only 39% (95% CI, 23-52) against type A (H3N2). Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against both type B lineages were similar (overall, 58%; 95% CI, 35-73). An apparent negative effect of prior year vaccination on current year effectiveness estimates was noted, particularly for A (H3N2) outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine effectiveness in the 2011-2012 season was modest overall, with lower effectiveness against the predominant A (H3N2) virus. This may be related to antigenic drift, but past history of vaccination might also play a role.

Importance: Given recent advances in screening mammography and adjuvant therapy (treatment), quantifying their separate and combined effects on US breast cancer mortality reductions by molecular subtype could guide future decisions to reduce disease burden. Objective: To evaluate the contributions associated with screening and treatment to breast cancer mortality reductions by molecular subtype based on estrogen-receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ERBB2, formerly HER2 or HER2/neu). Design, Setting, and Participants: Six Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality from 2000 to 2012 using national data on plain-film and digital mammography patterns and performance, dissemination and efficacy of ER/ERBB2-specific treatment, and competing mortality. Multiple US birth cohorts were simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography and treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: The models compared age-adjusted, overall, and ER/ERBB2-specific breast cancer mortality rates from 2000 to 2012 for women aged 30 to 79 years relative to the estimated mortality rate in the absence of screening and treatment (baseline rate); mortality reductions were apportioned to screening and treatment. Results: In 2000, the estimated reduction in overall breast cancer mortality rate was 37% (model range, 27%-42%) relative to the estimated baseline rate in 2000 of 64 deaths (model range, 56-73) per 100 000 women: 44% (model range, 35%-60%) of this reduction was associated with screening and 56% (model range, 40%-65%) with treatment. In 2012, the estimated reduction in overall breast cancer mortality rate was 49% (model range, 39%-58%) relative to the estimated baseline rate in 2012 of 63 deaths (model range, 54-73) per 100 000 women: 37% (model range, 26%-51%) of this reduction was associated with screening and 63% (model range, 49%-74%) with treatment. Of the 63% associated with treatment, 31% (model range, 22%-37%) was associated with chemotherapy, 27% (model range, 18%-36%) with hormone therapy, and 4% (model range, 1%-6%) with trastuzumab. The estimated relative contributions associated with screening vs treatment varied by molecular subtype: for ER+/ERBB2-, 36% (model range, 24%-50%) vs 64% (model range, 50%-76%); for ER+/ERBB2+, 31% (model range, 23%-41%) vs 69% (model range, 59%-77%); for ER-/ERBB2+, 40% (model range, 34%-47%) vs 60% (model range, 53%-66%); and for ER-/ERBB2-, 48% (model range, 38%-57%) vs 52% (model range, 44%-62%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this simulation modeling study that projected trends in breast cancer mortality rates among US women, decreases in overall breast cancer mortality from 2000 to 2012 were associated with advances in screening and in adjuvant therapy, although the associations varied by breast cancer molecular subtype.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of RAS mutation status on the traditional clinical score (t-CS) to predict survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM). BACKGROUND: The t-CS relies on the following factors: primary tumor nodal status, disease-free interval, number and size of CLM, and carcinoembryonic antigen level. We hypothesized that the addition of RAS mutation status could create a modified clinical score (m-CS) that would outperform the t-CS. METHODS: Patients who underwent resection of CLM from 2005 through 2013 and had RAS mutation status and t-CS factors available were included. Multivariate analysis was used to identify prognostic factors to include in the m-CS. Log-rank survival analyses were used to compare the t-CS and the m-CS. The m-CS was validated in an international multicenter cohort of 608 patients. RESULTS: A total of 564 patients were eligible for analysis. RAS mutation was detected in 205 (36.3%) of patients. On multivariate analysis, RAS mutation was associated with poor overall survival, as were positive primary tumor lymph node status and diameter of the largest liver metastasis >50 mm. Each factor was assigned 1 point to produce a m-CS. The m-CS accurately stratified patients by overall and recurrence-free survival in both the initial patient series and validation cohort, whereas the t-CS did not. CONCLUSIONS: Modifying the t-CS by replacing disease-free interval, number of metastases, and CEA level with RAS mutation status produced an m-CS that outperformed the t-CS. The m-CS is therefore a simple validated tool that predicts survival after resection of CLM.

Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence. Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100 000 women in 1975 and 27/100 000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years). Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.

BACKGROUND: Thyroidectomy has traditionally been performed as an inpatient hospital procedure, but low risk and high patient tolerance make it acceptable as an outpatient procedure. STUDY DESIGN: All thyroidectomies performed by a single surgeon between March 2003 and June 2009 were retrospectively and prospectively reviewed as planned outpatient or planned inpatient operations, noting the patient's American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, success of completion as an outpatient procedure, time to same-day discharge, postoperative emergency room visit, hospital admission, and complications. RESULTS: Overall, 1,136 of 1,242 thyroidectomies were planned as outpatient procedures and 1,063 (93.6%) were successfully completed as such. Including 1 outpatient procedure initially planned as an inpatient procedure, 1,064 outpatient procedures were performed, of which 613 were total and 451 less-than-total thyroidectomies. These outpatient procedures had a mean time to day-surgery discharge of 2 hours and 42 minutes. Of discharged outpatients, a postoperative emergency room visit within 30 days occurred in 83 cases (7.8%), with subsequent hospital admission in 25 of these patients (2.3%). Excluding 153 cases of isolated and self-limited asymptomatic hypocalcemia (14.4%), substantial complications occurred in 122 discharged outpatients (11.5%), including 56 symptomatic hypocalcemias (5.2%), 39 transient recurrent laryngeal nerve injuries (3.7%), 4 permanent recurrent laryngeal nerve injuries (0.4%), and 2 hematomas (0.19%). None of the patients with postoperative hematoma required bedside decompression and only 1 occurred within 24 hours of the outpatient procedure. Discharged outpatient thyroidectomy patients were younger (53 years versus 60 years; p < 0.0001) and healthier (2.3 ASA versus 3.0 ASA; p < 0.0001) than planned inpatient thyroidectomies. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatient thyroidectomy in experienced hands is safe and reasonable with favorable patient acceptance and the potential for substantial health care cost savings.