Gonçalo Forjaz

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is made up of distinct subtypes, including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). Although overall mortality from lung cancer has been declining in the United States, little is known about mortality trends according to cancer subtype at the population level because death certificates do not record subtype information. METHODS: Using data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) areas, we assessed lung-cancer mortality and linked deaths from lung cancer to incident cases in SEER cancer registries. This allowed us to evaluate population-level mortality trends attributed to specific subtypes (incidence-based mortality). We also evaluated lung-cancer incidence and survival according to cancer subtype, sex, and calendar year. Joinpoint software was used to assess changes in incidence and trends in incidence-based mortality. RESULTS: Mortality from NSCLC decreased even faster than the incidence of this subtype, and this decrease was associated with a substantial improvement in survival over time that corresponded to the timing of approval of targeted therapy. Among men, incidence-based mortality from NSCLC decreased 6.3% annually from 2013 through 2016, whereas the incidence decreased 3.1% annually from 2008 through 2016. Corresponding lung cancer-specific survival improved from 26% among men with NSCLC that was diagnosed in 2001 to 35% among those in whom it was diagnosed in 2014. This improvement in survival was found across all races and ethnic groups. Similar patterns were found among women with NSCLC. In contrast, mortality from SCLC declined almost entirely as a result of declining incidence, with no improvement in survival. This result correlates with limited treatment advances for SCLC in the time frame we examined. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level mortality from NSCLC in the United States fell sharply from 2013 to 2016, and survival after diagnosis improved substantially. Our analysis suggests that a reduction in incidence along with treatment advances - particularly approvals for and use of targeted therapies - is likely to explain the reduction in mortality observed during this period.

Abstract Background There are over 100 histologically distinct types of primary malignant and nonmalignant brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Our study presents recent trends in the incidence of these tumors using an updated histology recode that incorporates major diagnostic categories listed in the 2016 World Health Organization Classification of Tumours of the CNS. Methods We used data from the SEER-21 registries for patients of all ages diagnosed in 2000–2017. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates and fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the Annual Percent Change and 95% confidence intervals over the period 2000–2017. Results There were 315,184 new malignant (34.2%; 107,890) and nonmalignant (65.8%; 207,294) brain tumor cases during 2004–2017. Nonmalignant meningioma represented 46.5% (146,498) of all brain tumors (malignant and nonmalignant), while glioblastoma represented 50.8% (54,832) of all malignant tumors. Temporal trends were stable or declining except for nonmalignant meningioma (0.7% per year during 2004–2017). Several subtypes presented decreases in trends in the most recent period (2013–2017): diffuse/anaplastic astrocytoma (−1.3% per year, oligodendroglioma (−2.6%), pilocytic astrocytoma (−3.8%), and malignant meningioma (−5.9%). Conclusions Declining trends observed in our study may be attributable to recent changes in diagnostic classification and the coding practices stemming from those changes. The recode used in this study enables histology reporting to reflect the changes. It also provides a first step toward the reporting of malignant and nonmalignant brain and other CNS tumors in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program by clinically relevant histology groupings.

INTRODUCTION: In Portugal, lung cancer (LC) is the first cause of cancer-related death and of death and disability combined. This study aims to analyze the overall survival (OS) and relative survival (RS) of patients diagnosed with LC in 2009-2011 by socio-demographic and tumor characteristics, and analyze sex-specific patterns. METHODS: We estimated 5-year OS using the Kaplan-Meier method and 5-year net survival through the RS framework. Cox regression modeling was used to determine the hazard ratio (HR) of death associated with each independent variable. FINDINGS: For the 11,523 cases analyzed, median 5-year OS was 264 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 254.8-273.2), the cumulative OS was 13.6% and RS was 15.1%. Males had a lower median survival (237 days; 95% CI: 228.2-245.7) compared to females (416 days; 95% CI: 384.4-447.6) (p < 0.0001) and lower 5-year RS proportions (12.1% vs. 24.9%). RS progressively decreased with age (41.7% for age-group <40 to 7.2% for ≥80) and stage (66.6% for stage I to 2.4% for stage IV). As predictors of decreased survival, we identified male gender, increasing age >50, histologic types (squamous cell carcinoma, non-small cell lung cancer not otherwise specified, other unspecified and small cell lung cancer), and increasing stage. Compared to women, the risk of death in men was 37.7% higher (HR = 1.386; 95% CI: 1.295-1.484). CONCLUSIONS: The differences between OS and RS were small, reflecting the high lethality of LC. Male gender and older age are factors related to poor prognosis. Histology also plays a role in survival prognosis and varies with gender, but the factor related to the worst survival is stage. Although the study reflects data from a decade ago, and major changes occurred in diagnosis, staging and treatment, particularly for advanced disease, as LC mortality is strongly correlated with late stage diagnosis, all efforts should be made to secure early diagnosis and improve survival prospects.

BACKGROUND: Stage is the most important prognostic factor for understanding cancer survival trends. Summary stage (SS) classifies cancer based on the extent of spread: In situ, Localized, Regional, or Distant. Continual updating of staging systems poses challenges to stage comparisons over time. We use a consistent summary stage classification and present survival trends for 25 cancer sites using the joinpoint survival (JPSurv) model. METHODS: We developed a modified summary stage variable, Long-Term Site-Specific Summary Stage, based on as consistent a definition as possible and applied it to a maximum number of diagnosis years, 1975-2019. We estimated trends by stage by applying JPSurv to relative survival data for 25 cancer sites in SEER-8, 1975-2018, followed through December 31, 2019. To help interpret survival trends, we report incidence and mortality trends using the joinpoint model. RESULTS: Five-year relative survival improved for nearly all sites and stages. Large improvements were observed for localized pancreatic cancer [4.25 percentage points annually, 2007-2012 (95% confidence interval, 3.40-5.10)], distant skin melanoma [2.15 percentage points annually, 2008-2018 (1.73-2.57)], and localized esophagus cancer [1.18 percentage points annually, 1975-2018 (1.11-1.26)]. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first analysis of survival trends by summary stage for multiple cancer sites. The largest survival increases were seen for cancers with a traditionally poor prognosis and no organized screening, which likely reflects clinical management advances. IMPACT: Our study will be particularly useful for understanding the population-level impact of new treatments and identifying emerging trends in health disparities research.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. DESIGN: Cancer cases for 1998-2011 and cancer deaths for 1991-2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto's method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. SETTING: Portugal. RESULTS: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998-2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. CONCLUSION: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.