Frank Dahlke

<h3>Objective</h3> To assess the value of blood neurofilament light chain (NfL) as a biomarker of recent, ongoing, and future disease activity and tissue damage and its utility to monitor treatment response in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. <h3>Methods</h3> We measured NfL in blood samples from 589 patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (from phase 3 studies of fingolimod vs placebo, FREEDOMS and interferon [IFN]-β-1a, TRANSFORMS) and 35 healthy controls and compared NfL levels with clinical and MRI-related outcomes. <h3>Results</h3> At baseline, NfL levels (pg/mL) were higher in patients than in healthy controls (30.5 and 27.0 vs 16.9, <i>p</i> = 0.0001) and correlated with T2 lesion load and number of gadolinium-enhancing T1 lesions (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.0001, both). Baseline NfL levels, treatment, and number of new or enlarging T2 lesions during the studies predicted NfL levels at the end of study (all <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01). High vs low baseline NfL levels were associated (estimate [95% confidence interval]) with an increased number of new or enlarging T2 lesions (ratio of mean: 2.64 [1.51–4.60]; <i>p</i> = 0.0006), relapses (rate ratio: 2.53 [1.67–3.83]; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.0001), brain volume loss (difference in means: −0.78% [−1.02 to −0.54]; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.0001), and risk of confirmed disability worsening (hazard ratio: 1.94 [0.97–3.87]; <i>p</i> = 0.0605). Fingolimod significantly reduced NfL levels already at 6 months (vs placebo 0.73 [0.656–0.813] and IFN 0.789 [0.704–0.884]), which was sustained until the end of the studies (vs placebo 0.628 [0.552–0.714] and IFN 0.794 [0.705–0.894]; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001, both studies at all assessments). <h3>Conclusions</h3> Blood NfL levels are associated with clinical and MRI-related measures of disease activity and neuroaxonal damage and have prognostic value. Our results support the utility of blood NfL as an easily accessible biomarker of disease evolution and treatment response.

Patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability either through relapse-associated worsening (RAW) or progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA). This study addresses the relative contribution of relapses to disability worsening over the course of the disease, how early progression begins and the extent to which multiple sclerosis therapies delay disability accumulation. Using the Novartis-Oxford multiple sclerosis (NO.MS) data pool spanning all multiple sclerosis phenotypes and paediatric multiple sclerosis, we evaluated ∼200 000 Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) transitions from >27 000 patients with ≤15 years follow-up. We analysed three datasets: (i) A full analysis dataset containing all observational and randomized controlled clinical trials in which disability and relapses were assessed (n = 27 328); (ii) all phase 3 clinical trials (n = 8346); and (iii) all placebo-controlled phase 3 clinical trials (n = 4970). We determined the relative importance of RAW and PIRA, investigated the role of relapses on all-cause disability worsening using Andersen-Gill models and observed the impact of the mechanism of worsening and disease-modifying therapies on the time to reach milestone disability levels using time continuous Markov models. PIRA started early in the disease process, occurred in all phenotypes and became the principal driver of disability accumulation in the progressive phase of the disease. Relapses significantly increased the hazard of all-cause disability worsening events; following a year in which relapses occurred (versus a year without relapses), the hazard increased by 31-48% (all P < 0.001). Pre-existing disability and older age were the principal risk factors for incomplete relapse recovery. For placebo-treated patients with minimal disability (EDSS 1), it took 8.95 years until increased limitation in walking ability (EDSS 4) and 18.48 years to require walking assistance (EDSS 6). Treating patients with disease-modifying therapies delayed these times significantly by 3.51 years (95% confidence limit: 3.19, 3.96) and 3.09 years (2.60, 3.72), respectively. In patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, those who worsened exclusively due to RAW events took a similar length of time to reach milestone EDSS values compared with those with PIRA events; the fastest transitions were observed in patients with PIRA and superimposed relapses. Our data confirm that relapses contribute to the accumulation of disability, primarily early in multiple sclerosis. PIRA begins in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and becomes the dominant driver of disability accumulation as the disease evolves. Pre-existing disability and older age are the principal risk factors for further disability accumulation. The use of disease-modifying therapies delays disability accrual by years, with the potential to gain time being highest in the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis.

The recently completed European trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNbeta-1b) in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SP multiple sclerosis) has given an opportunity to assess the impact of treatment on cerebral atrophy using serial MRI. Unenhanced T(1)-weighted brain imaging was acquired in a subgroup of 95 patients from five of the European centres; imaging was performed at 6-month intervals from month 0 to month 36. A blinded observer measured cerebral volume on four contiguous 5 mm cerebral hemisphere slices at each time point, using an algorithm with a high level of reproducibility and automation. There was a significant and progressive reduction in cerebral volume in both placebo and treated groups, with a mean reduction of 3.9 and 2.9%, respectively, by month 36 (P = 0.34 between groups). Exploratory subgroup analyses indicated that patients without gadolinium (Gd) enhancement at the baseline had a greater reduction of cerebral volume in the placebo group (mean reduction at month 36: placebo 5.1%, IFNbeta-1b 1.8%, P < 0.05) whereas those with Gd-enhancing lesions showed a trend to greater reduction of cerebral volume if the patient was on IFNbeta-1b (placebo 2.6%, IFNbeta-1b 3.7%; P > 0.05). These results are consistent with ongoing tissue loss in both arms of this study of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. This finding is concordant with previous observations that disease progression, although delayed, is not halted by IFNbeta. The different pattern seen in patients with and without baseline gadolinium enhancement suggests that part of the cerebral volume reduction observed in IFNbeta-treated patients may be due to the anti-inflammatory/antioedematous effect of the drug. Longer periods of observation and larger groups of patients may be needed to detect the effects of treatment on cerebral atrophy in this population of patients with advanced disease.