Jurate M. Landwehr

Distributions whose inverse forms are explicitly defined, such as Tukey's lambda, may present problems in deriving their parameters by more conventional means. Probability weighted moments are introduced and shown to be potentially useful in expressing the parameters of these distributions.

Oxygen-18 (delta(18)O) variations in a 36-centimeter-long core (DH-11) of vein calcite from Devils Hole, Nevada, yield an uninterrupted 500,000-year paleotemperature record that closely mimics all major features in the Vostok (Antarctica) paleotemperature and marine delta(18)O ice-volume records. The chronology for this continental record is based on 21 replicated mass-spectrometric uranium-series dates. Between the middle and latest Pleistocene, the duration of the last four glacial cycles recorded in the calcite increased from 80,000 to 130,000 years; this variation suggests that major climate changes were aperiodic. The timing of specific climatic events indicates that orbitally controlled variations in solar insolation were not a major factor in triggering deglaciations. Interglacial climates lasted about 20,000 years. Collectively, these observations are inconsistent with the Milankovitch hypothesis for the origin of the Pleistocene glacial cycles but they are consistent with the thesis that these cycles originated from internal nonlinear feedbacks within the atmosphere-ice sheet-ocean system.

Estimates of the parameters and quantiles of the Gumbel distribution by the methods of probability weighted moments, (conventional) moments, and maximum likelihood were compared. Results were derived from Monte Carlo experiments by using both independent and serially correlated Gumbel numbers. The method of probability weighted moments was seen to compare favorably with the other two techniques.

Records of streamflow can provide an account of climatic variation over a hydrologic basin. The ability to do so is conditioned on the absence of confounding factors that diminish the climate signal. A national data set of streamflow records that are relatively free of confounding anthropogenic influences has been developed for the purpose of studying the variation in surface-water conditions throughout the United States. Records in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE) data base for active and discontinued streamflow gaging stations through water year 1988 (that is, through September 30, 1988) were reviewed jointly with data specialists in each USGS District office. The resulting collection of stations, each with its respective period of record satisfying the qualifying criteria, is called the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, or HCDN. The HCDN consists of 1,659 sites throughout the United States and its territories, totaling 73,231 water years of daily mean discharge values. For each station in the HCDN, information necessary for its identification, along with any qualifying comments about the available record and a set of descriptive watershed characteristics are provided in tabular format in this report, both on paper and on computer disk (enclosed). For each station in the HCDN, the appropriate daily mean discharge values were compiled, and statistical characteristics, including monthly mean discharges and annual mean, minimum and maximum discharges, were derived. The discharge data values are provided in a companion report.

Abstract Reanalysis and additional dating of the Devils Hole δ 18 O paleotemperature record confirm that the last interglaciation in the Great Basin (the continental analog of marine isotopic substage 5e) lasted ∼22,000 yr, consistent with the Vostok paleotemperature record which suggests a duration of ∼19,000 yr for this event in Antarctica. The three preceding interglaciations in the Devils Hole record (analogs of marine isotopic substages 7e, 9c, and 11c) range from 20,000 to 26,000 yr in duration. A ∼20,000-yr duration for the last interglaciation is consistent with TIMS uranium-series dated sea-level high stands. Thus, the widely held view that interglaciations were of 11,000- to 13,000-yr duration and constituted only about 10% of mid-to-late Pleistocene climatic cycles needs reexamination. The warmest portion of each interglaciation in the Devils Hole time series is marked by a δ 18 O plateau, signifying apparent climatic stability for periods of 10,000- to 15,000-yr duration.