Robert J. Cerfolio

OBJECTIVE: To describe outcomes of people admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United States, and the clinical and laboratory characteristics associated with severity of illness. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Single academic medical center in New York City and Long Island. PARTICIPANTS: 5279 patients with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection between 1 March 2020 and 8 April 2020. The final date of follow up was 5 May 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were admission to hospital, critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, discharge to hospice care, or death), and discharge to hospice care or death. Predictors included patient characteristics, medical history, vital signs, and laboratory results. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes, and competing risk survival analysis for mortality. RESULTS: Of 11 544 people tested for SARS-Cov-2, 5566 (48.2%) were positive. After exclusions, 5279 were included. 2741 of these 5279 (51.9%) were admitted to hospital, of whom 1904 (69.5%) were discharged alive without hospice care and 665 (24.3%) were discharged to hospice care or died. Of 647 (23.6%) patients requiring mechanical ventilation, 391 (60.4%) died and 170 (26.2%) were extubated or discharged. The strongest risk for hospital admission was associated with age, with an odds ratio of >2 for all age groups older than 44 years and 37.9 (95% confidence interval 26.1 to 56.0) for ages 75 years and older. Other risks were heart failure (4.4, 2.6 to 8.0), male sex (2.8, 2.4 to 3.2), chronic kidney disease (2.6, 1.9 to 3.6), and any increase in body mass index (BMI) (eg, for BMI >40: 2.5, 1.8 to 3.4). The strongest risks for critical illness besides age were associated with heart failure (1.9, 1.4 to 2.5), BMI >40 (1.5, 1.0 to 2.2), and male sex (1.5, 1.3 to 1.8). Admission oxygen saturation of <88% (3.7, 2.8 to 4.8), troponin level >1 (4.8, 2.1 to 10.9), C reactive protein level >200 (5.1, 2.8 to 9.2), and D-dimer level >2500 (3.9, 2.6 to 6.0) were, however, more strongly associated with critical illness than age or comorbidities. Risk of critical illness decreased significantly over the study period. Similar associations were found for mortality alone. CONCLUSIONS: Age and comorbidities were found to be strong predictors of hospital admission and to a lesser extent of critical illness and mortality in people with covid-19; however, impairment of oxygen on admission and markers of inflammation were most strongly associated with critical illness and mortality. Outcomes seem to be improving over time, potentially suggesting improvements in care.

Enhanced recovery after surgery is well established in specialties such as colorectal surgery. It is achieved through the introduction of multiple evidence-based perioperative measures that aim to diminish postoperative organ dysfunction while facilitating recovery. This review aims to present consensus recommendations for the optimal perioperative management of patients undergoing thoracic surgery (principally lung resection). A systematic review of meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, large non-randomized studies and reviews was conducted for each protocol element. Smaller prospective and retrospective cohort studies were considered only when higher-level evidence was unavailable. The quality of the evidence base was graded by the authors and used to form consensus recommendations for each topic. Development of these recommendations was endorsed by the Enhanced Recovery after Surgery Society and the European Society for Thoracic Surgery. Recommendations were developed for a total of 45 enhanced recovery items covering topics related to preadmission, admission, intraoperative care and postoperative care. Most are based on good-quality studies. In some instances, good-quality data were not available, and subsequent recommendations are generic or based on data extrapolated from other specialties. In other cases, no recommendation can currently be made because either equipoise exists or there is a lack of available evidence. Recommendations are based not only on the quality of the evidence but also on the balance between desirable and undesirable effects. Key recommendations include preoperative counselling, nutritional screening, smoking cessation, prehabilitation for high-risk patients, avoidance of fasting, carbohydrate loading, avoidance of preoperative sedatives, venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, prevention of hypothermia, short-acting anaesthetics to facilitate early emergence, regional anaesthesia, nausea and vomiting control, opioid-sparing analgesia, euvolemic fluid management, minimally invasive surgery, early chest drain removal, avoidance of urinary catheters and early mobilization after surgery. These guidelines outline recommendations for the perioperative management of patients undergoing lung surgery based on the best available evidence. As the recommendation grade for most of the elements is strong, the use of a systematic perioperative care pathway has the potential to improve outcomes after surgery.

Purpose The efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) plus surgery for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains controversial. In this trial, we compared the survival and safety of NCRT plus surgery with surgery alone in patients with locally advanced ESCC. Patients and Methods From June 2007 to December 2014, 451 patients with potentially resectable thoracic ESCC, clinically staged as T1-4N1M0/T4N0M0, were randomly allocated to NCRT plus surgery (group CRT; n = 224) and surgery alone (group S; n = 227). In group CRT, patients received vinorelbine 25 mg/m 2 intravenously (IV) on days 1 and 8 and cisplatin 75 mg/m 2 IV day 1, or 25 mg/m 2 IV on days 1 to 4 every 3 weeks for two cycles, with a total concurrent radiation dose of 40.0 Gy administered in 20 fractions of 2.0 Gy on 5 days per week. In both groups, patients underwent McKeown or Ivor Lewis esophagectomy. The primary end point was overall survival. Results The pathologic complete response rate was 43.2% in group CRT. Compared with group S, group CRT had a higher R0 resection rate (98.4% v 91.2%; P = .002), a better median overall survival (100.1 months v 66.5 months; hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.96; P = .025), and a prolonged disease-free survival (100.1 months v 41.7 months; hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.78; P &lt; .001). Leukopenia (48.9%) and neutropenia (45.7%) were the most common grade 3 or 4 adverse events during chemoradiotherapy. Incidences of postoperative complications were similar between groups, with the exception of arrhythmia (group CRT: 13% v group S: 4.0%; P = .001). Peritreatment mortality was 2.2% in group CRT versus 0.4% in group S ( P = .212). Conclusion This trial shows that NCRT plus surgery improves survival over surgery alone among patients with locally advanced ESCC, with acceptable and manageable adverse events.

Abstract Background Little is known about factors associated with hospitalization and critical illness in Covid-19 positive patients. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 treated at an academic health system in New York City between March 1, 2020 and April 2, 2020, with follow up through April 7, 2020. Primary outcomes were hospitalization and critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, hospice and/or death). We conducted multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes, and maximum information gain decision tree classifications to identify key splitters. Results Among 4,103 Covid-19 patients, 1,999 (48.7%) were hospitalized, of whom 981/1,999 (49.1%) have been discharged, and 292/1,999 (14.6%) have died or been discharged to hospice. Of 445 patients requiring mechanical ventilation, 162/445 (36.4%) have died. Strongest hospitalization risks were age ≥75 years (OR 66.8, 95% CI, 44.7-102.6), age 65-74 (OR 10.9, 95% CI, 8.35-14.34), BMI&gt;40 (OR 6.2, 95% CI, 4.2-9.3), and heart failure (OR 4.3 95% CI, 1.9-11.2). Strongest critical illness risks were admission oxygen saturation &lt;88% (OR 6.99, 95% CI 4.5-11.0), d-dimer&gt;2500 (OR 6.9, 95% CI, 3.2-15.2), ferritin &gt;2500 (OR 6.9, 95% CI, 3.2-15.2), and C-reactive protein (CRP) &gt;200 (OR 5.78, 95% CI, 2.6-13.8). In the decision tree for admission, the most important features were age &gt;65 and obesity; for critical illness, the most important was SpO2&lt;88, followed by procalcitonin &gt;0.5, troponin &lt;0.1 (protective), age &gt;64 and CRP&gt;200. Conclusions Age and comorbidities are powerful predictors of hospitalization; however, admission oxygen impairment and markers of inflammation are most strongly associated with critical illness.

INTRODUCTION: Electromagnetic navigation bronchoscopy (ENB) is a minimally invasive technology that guides endoscopic tools to pulmonary lesions. ENB has been evaluated primarily in small, single-center studies; thus, the diagnostic yield in a generalizable setting is unknown. METHODS: NAVIGATE is a prospective, multicenter, cohort study that evaluated ENB using the superDimension navigation system (Medtronic, Minneapolis, Minnesota). In this United States cohort analysis, 1215 consecutive subjects were enrolled at 29 academic and community sites from April 2015 to August 2016. RESULTS: The median lesion size was 20.0 mm. Fluoroscopy was used in 91% of cases (lesions visible in 60%) and radial endobronchial ultrasound in 57%. The median ENB planning time was 5 minutes; the ENB-specific procedure time was 25 minutes. Among 1157 subjects undergoing ENB-guided biopsy, 94% (1092 of 1157) had navigation completed and tissue obtained. Follow-up was completed in 99% of subjects at 1 month and 80% at 12 months. The 12-month diagnostic yield was 73%. Pathology results of the ENB-aided tissue samples showed malignancy in 44% (484 of 1092). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for malignancy were 69%, 100%, 100%, and 56%, respectively. ENB-related Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade 2 or higher pneumothoraces (requiring admission or chest tube placement) occurred in 2.9%. The ENB-related Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade 2 or higher bronchopulmonary hemorrhage and grade 4 or higher respiratory failure rates were 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: NAVIGATE shows that an ENB-aided diagnosis can be obtained in approximately three-quarters of evaluable patients across a generalizable cohort based on prospective 12-month follow-up in a pragmatic setting with a low procedural complication rate.