Matthew Richardson

BACKGROUND: The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. METHODS: The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). FINDINGS: We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9-6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40-59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity. INTERPRETATION: We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

BACKGROUND: No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge. METHODS: The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing. FINDINGS: 2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. INTERPRETATION: The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Whole blood transcriptional signatures distinguishing active tuberculosis patients from asymptomatic latently infected individuals exist. Consensus has not been achieved regarding the optimal reduced gene sets as diagnostic biomarkers that also achieve discrimination from other diseases. Here we show a blood transcriptional signature of active tuberculosis using RNA-Seq, confirming microarray results, that discriminates active tuberculosis from latently infected and healthy individuals, validating this signature in an independent cohort. Using an advanced modular approach, we utilise the information from the entire transcriptome, which includes overabundance of type I interferon-inducible genes and underabundance of IFNG and TBX21, to develop a signature that discriminates active tuberculosis patients from latently infected individuals or those with acute viral and bacterial infections. We suggest that methods targeting gene selection across multiple discriminant modules can improve the development of diagnostic biomarkers with improved performance. Finally, utilising the modular approach, we demonstrate dynamic heterogeneity in a longitudinal study of recent tuberculosis contacts.

Abstract Rationale Asthma is characterized by disease within the small airways. Several studies have suggested that forced oscillation technique–derived resistance at 5 Hz (R5) − resistance at 20 Hz (R20) is a measure of small airway disease; however, there has been limited validation of this measurement to date. Objectives To validate the use of forced oscillation R5 − R20 as a measure of small airway narrowing in asthma, and to investigate the role that small airway narrowing plays in asthma. Methods Patient-based complete conducting airway models were generated from computed tomography scans to simulate the impact of different degrees of airway narrowing at different levels of the airway tree on forced oscillation R5 − R20 (n = 31). The computational models were coupled with regression models in an asthmatic cohort (n = 177) to simulate the impact of small airway narrowing on asthma control and quality of life. The computational models were used to predict the impact on small airway narrowing of type-2 targeting biologics using pooled data from two similarly design randomized, placebo-controlled biologic trials (n = 137). Measurements and Main Results Simulations demonstrated that narrowing of the small airways had a greater impact on R5 − R20 than narrowing of the larger airways and was associated (above a threshold of approximately 40% narrowing) with marked deterioration in both asthma control and asthma quality of life, above the minimal clinical important difference. The observed treatment effect on R5 − R20 in the pooled trials equated to a predicted small airway narrowing reversal of approximately 40%. Conclusions We have demonstrated, using computational modeling, that forced oscillation R5 − R20 is a direct measure of anatomical narrowing in the small airways and that small airway narrowing has a marked impact on both asthma control and quality of life and may be modified by biologics.