Ellen McDonald

OBJECTIVE: Predicting outcomes for critically ill patients is an important aspect of discussions with families in the intensive care unit. Our objective was to evaluate clinical intensive care unit survival predictions and their consequences for mechanically ventilated patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Fifteen tertiary care centers. PATIENTS: Consecutive mechanically ventilated patients > or = 18 yrs of age with expected intensive care unit stay > or = 72 hrs. INTERVENTIONS: We recorded baseline characteristics at intensive care unit admission. Daily we measured multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), use of advanced life support, patient preferences for life support, and intensivist and bedside intensive care unit nurse estimated probability of intensive care unit survival. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The 851 patients were aged 61.2 (+/- 17.6, mean + SD) yrs with an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score of 21.7 (+/- 8.6). Three hundred and four patients (35.7%) died in the intensive care unit, and 341 (40.1%) were assessed by a physician at least once to have a < 10% intensive care unit survival probability. Independent predictors of intensive care unit mortality were baseline APACHE II score (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.24, for a 5-point increase) and daily factors such as MODS (hazard ratio, 2.50; 95% confidence interval, 2.06-3.04, for a 5-point increase), use of inotropes or vasopressors (hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.66-2.77), dialysis (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.75), patient preference to limit life support (hazard ratio, 10.22; 95% confidence interval, 7.38-14.16), and physician but not nurse prediction of < 10% survival. The impact of physician estimates of < 10% intensive care unit survival was greater for patients without vs. those with preferences to limit life support (p < .001) and for patients with less vs. more severe organ dysfunction (p < .001). Mechanical ventilation, inotropes or vasopressors, and dialysis were withdrawn more often when physicians predicted < 10% probability of intensive care unit survival (all ps < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Physician estimates of intensive care unit survival < 10% are associated with subsequent life support limitation and more powerfully predict intensive care unit mortality than illness severity, evolving or resolving organ dysfunction, and use of inotropes or vasopressors.

PURPOSE: To estimate the incidence, severity, duration and consequences of bleeding during critical illness, and to test the performance characteristics of a new bleeding assessment tool. METHODS: Clinical bleeding assessments were performed prospectively on 100 consecutive patients admitted to a medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) using a novel bleeding measurement tool called HEmorrhage MEasurement (HEME). Bleeding assessments were done daily in duplicate and independently by blinded, trained assessors. Inter-rater agreement and construct validity of the HEME tool were calculated using phi. Risk factors for major bleeding were identified using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Overall, 90% of patients experienced a total of 480 bleeds of which 94.8% were minor and 5.2% were major. Inter-rater reliability of the HEME tool was excellent (phi = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96 to 0.99). A decrease in platelet count and a prolongation of partial thromboplastin time were independent risk factors for major bleeding but neither were renal failure nor prophylactic anticoagulation. Patients with major bleeding received more blood transfusions and had longer ICU stays compared to patients with minor or no bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding, although primarily minor, occurred in the majority of ICU patients. One of five patients experienced a major bleed which was associated with abnormal coagulation tests but not with prophylactic anticoagulants. These baseline bleeding rates can inform the design of future clinical trials in critical care that use bleeding as an outcome and HEME is a useful tool to measure bleeding in critically ill patients.

OBJECTIVE: Protocolized sedation (PS) and daily sedative interruption (DI) in critically ill patients have both been shown to shorten the durations of mechanical ventilation (MV) and intensive care unit (ICU) stay. Our objective was to determine the safety and feasibility of a randomized trial to determine whether adults managed with both PS + DI have a shorter duration of MV than patients managed with PS alone. DESIGN: Prospective randomized, concealed, unblinded, multicenter, pilot trial. SETTING: Three university-affiliated medical-surgical ICUs. PATIENTS: Sixty-five adults anticipated to require MV >48 hrs and receiving sedative/analgesic infusions. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized to PS alone, or PS + DI. PS was implemented by bedside nurses; sedatives/analgesics were titrated to achieve Sedation Agitation Score (SAS) 3-4. The PS + DI group also had infusions interrupted daily until the patients awoke. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Diagnosis, age [mean +/- SD] (53 +/- 18.3 vs. 62.1 +/- 16.7 yrs) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (27.7 +/- 8.4 vs. 26.6 +/- 8.4) were similar in the PS and PS + DI groups, respectively. The median duration of MV in the PS and PS + DI groups was 8.0 vs. 10.5 days, and ICU stay was 10.0 vs. 13.0 days, respectively. The SAS was within target range (3-4) in 59% of 9,611 measurements, and within an acceptable range (2-5) in 86% of measurements. Self-assessed nursing and respiratory therapist workload was low in the majority of the cohort. Adverse events were similar in both groups. Patient recruitment was slower than projected (1.5 patients/mo). CONCLUSION: This pilot trial comparing PS vs. PS + DI confirmed the safety and acceptability of the sedation protocol and DI, and guided important modifications to the protocol, thus enhancing the feasibility of a future multicenter trial. This trial was not designed to detect small but significant differences in clinically important outcomes.