Lü Tian

OBJECTIVE: The APOE4 allele is the strongest genetic risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer disease (AD). Case-control studies suggest the APOE4 link to AD is stronger in women. We examined the APOE4-by-sex interaction in conversion risk (from healthy aging to mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/AD or from MCI to AD) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker levels. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for an APOE-by-sex interaction on conversion in controls (n = 5,496) and MCI patients (n = 2,588). The interaction was also tested in CSF biomarker levels of 980 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. RESULTS: Among controls, male and female carriers were more likely to convert to MCI/AD, but the effect was stronger in women (HR = 1.81 for women; HR = 1.27 for men; interaction: p = 0.011). The interaction remained significant in a predefined subanalysis restricted to APOE3/3 and APOE3/4 genotypes. Among MCI patients, both male and female APOE4 carriers were more likely to convert to AD (HR = 2.16 for women; HR = 1.64 for men); the interaction was not significant (p = 0.14). In the subanalysis restricted to APOE3/3 and APOE3/4 genotypes, the interaction was significant (p = 0.02; HR = 2.17 for women; HR = 1.51 for men). The APOE4-by-sex interaction on biomarker levels was significant for MCI patients for total tau and the tau-to-Aβ ratio (p = 0.009 and p = 0.02, respectively; more AD-like in women). INTERPRETATION: APOE4 confers greater AD risk in women. Biomarker results suggest that increased APOE-related risk in women may be associated with tau pathology. These findings have important clinical implications and suggest novel research approaches into AD pathogenesis.

In a longitudinal clinical study to compare two groups, the primary end point is often the time to a specific event (eg, disease progression, death). The hazard ratio estimate is routinely used to empirically quantify the between-group difference under the assumption that the ratio of the two hazard functions is approximately constant over time. When this assumption is plausible, such a ratio estimate may capture the relative difference between two survival curves. However, the clinical meaning of such a ratio estimate is difficult, if not impossible, to interpret when the underlying proportional hazards assumption is violated (ie, the hazard ratio is not constant over time). Although this issue has been studied extensively and various alternatives to the hazard ratio estimator have been discussed in the statistical literature, such crucial information does not seem to have reached the broader community of health science researchers. In this article, we summarize several critical concerns regarding this conventional practice and discuss various well-known alternatives for quantifying the underlying differences between groups with respect to a time-to-event end point. The data from three recent cancer clinical trials, which reflect a variety of scenarios, are used throughout to illustrate our discussions. When there is not sufficient information about the profile of the between-group difference at the design stage of the study, we encourage practitioners to consider a prespecified, clinically meaningful, model-free measure for quantifying the difference and to use robust estimation procedures to draw primary inferences.

Accurate and rapid identification of perturbed pathways through the analysis of genome-wide expression profiles facilitates the generation of biological hypotheses. We propose a statistical framework for determining whether a specified group of genes for a pathway has a coordinated association with a phenotype of interest. Several issues on proper hypothesis-testing procedures are clarified. In particular, it is shown that the differences in the correlation structure of each set of genes can lead to a biased comparison among gene sets unless a normalization procedure is applied. We propose statistical tests for two important but different aspects of association for each group of genes. This approach has more statistical power than currently available methods and can result in the discovery of statistically significant pathways that are not detected by other methods. This method is applied to data sets involving diabetes, inflammatory myopathies, and Alzheimer's disease, using gene sets we compiled from various public databases. In the case of inflammatory myopathies, we have correctly identified the known cytotoxic T lymphocyte-mediated autoimmunity in inclusion body myositis. Furthermore, we predicted the presence of dendritic cells in inclusion body myositis and of an IFN-alpha/beta response in dermatomyositis, neither of which was previously described. These predictions have been subsequently corroborated by immunohistochemistry.

Abnormal glucose metabolism and enhanced oxidative stress accelerate cardiovascular disease, a chronic inflammatory condition causing high morbidity and mortality. Here, we report that in monocytes and macrophages of patients with atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD), overutilization of glucose promotes excessive and prolonged production of the cytokines IL-6 and IL-1β, driving systemic and tissue inflammation. In patient-derived monocytes and macrophages, increased glucose uptake and glycolytic flux fuel the generation of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species, which in turn promote dimerization of the glycolytic enzyme pyruvate kinase M2 (PKM2) and enable its nuclear translocation. Nuclear PKM2 functions as a protein kinase that phosphorylates the transcription factor STAT3, thus boosting IL-6 and IL-1β production. Reducing glycolysis, scavenging superoxide and enforcing PKM2 tetramerization correct the proinflammatory phenotype of CAD macrophages. In essence, PKM2 serves a previously unidentified role as a molecular integrator of metabolic dysfunction, oxidative stress and tissue inflammation and represents a novel therapeutic target in cardiovascular disease.

Suppose that we are interested in establishing simple but reliable rules for predicting future t-year survivors through censored regression models. In this article we present inference procedures for evaluating such binary classification rules based on various prediction precision measures quantified by the overall misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Specifically, under various working models, we derive consistent estimators for the above measures through substitution and cross-validation estimation procedures. Furthermore, we provide large-sample approximations to the distributions of these nonsmooth estimators without assuming that the working model is correctly specified. Confidence intervals, for example, for the difference of the precision measures between two competing rules can then be constructed. All of the proposals are illustrated with real examples, and their finite-sample properties are evaluated through a simulation study.