Ángel Balmaseda

For dengue viruses 1 to 4 (DENV1-4), a specific range of antibody titer has been shown to enhance viral replication in vitro and severe disease in animal models. Although suspected, such antibody-dependent enhancement of severe disease has not been shown to occur in humans. Using multiple statistical approaches to study a long-term pediatric cohort in Nicaragua, we show that risk of severe dengue disease is highest within a narrow range of preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers. By contrast, we observe protection from all symptomatic dengue disease at high antibody titers. Thus, immune correlates of severe dengue must be evaluated separately from correlates of protection against symptomatic disease. These results have implications for studies of dengue pathogenesis and for vaccine development, because enhancement, not just lack of protection, is of concern.

The rapid spread of dengue is a worldwide public health problem. In two clinical studies of dengue in Managua, Nicaragua, we observed an abrupt increase in disease severity across several epidemic seasons of dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) transmission. Waning DENV-1 immunity appeared to increase the risk of severe disease in subsequent DENV-2 infections after a period of cross-protection. The increase in severity coincided with replacement of the Asian/American DENV-2 NI-1 clade with a new virus clade, NI-2B. In vitro analyses of viral isolates from the two clades and analysis of viremia in patient blood samples support the emergence of a fitter virus in later, relative to earlier, epidemic seasons. In addition, the NI-1 clade of viruses was more virulent specifically in children who were immune to DENV-1, whereas DENV-3 immunity was associated with more severe disease among NI-2B infections. Our data demonstrate that the complex interaction between viral genetics and population dynamics of serotype-specific immunity contributes to the risk of severe dengue disease. Furthermore, this work provides insights into viral evolution and the interaction between viral and immunological determinants of viral fitness and virulence.

The Zika pandemic sparked intense interest in whether immune interactions among dengue virus serotypes 1 to 4 (DENV1 to -4) extend to the closely related Zika virus (ZIKV). We investigated prospective pediatric cohorts in Nicaragua that experienced sequential DENV1 to -3 (2004 to 2015), Zika (2016 to 2017), and DENV2 (2018 to 2020) epidemics. Risk of symptomatic DENV2 infection and severe disease was elevated by one prior ZIKV infection, one prior DENV infection, or one prior DENV infection followed by one ZIKV infection, compared with being flavivirus-naïve. By contrast, multiple prior DENV infections reduced dengue risk. Further, although high preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers protected against DENV1, DENV3, and ZIKV disease, intermediate titers induced by previous ZIKV or DENV infection enhanced future risk of DENV2 disease and severity, as well as DENV3 severity. The observation that prior ZIKV infection can modulate dengue disease severity like a DENV serotype poses challenges to development of dengue and Zika vaccines.

The clinical outcomes associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas have been well documented, but other aspects of the pandemic, such as attack rates and risk factors, are poorly understood. We prospectively followed a cohort of 1453 urban residents in Salvador, Brazil, and, using an assay that measured immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3) responses against ZIKV NS1 antigen, we estimated that 73% of individuals were infected during the 2015 outbreak. Attack rates were spatially heterogeneous, varying by a factor of 3 within a community spanning 0.17 square kilometers. Preexisting high antibody titers to dengue virus were associated with reduced risk of ZIKV infection and symptoms. The landscape of ZIKV immunity that now exists may affect the risk for future transmission.