Hayato Ito

Abstract The emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is an urgent global health concern 1 . In this study, our statistical modelling suggests that Omicron has spread more rapidly than the Delta variant in several countries including South Africa. Cell culture experiments showed Omicron to be less fusogenic than Delta and than an ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2. Although the spike (S) protein of Delta is efficiently cleaved into two subunits, which facilitates cell–cell fusion 2,3 , the Omicron S protein was less efficiently cleaved compared to the S proteins of Delta and ancestral SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, in a hamster model, Omicron showed decreased lung infectivity and was less pathogenic compared to Delta and ancestral SARS-CoV-2. Our multiscale investigations reveal the virological characteristics of Omicron, including rapid growth in the human population, lower fusogenicity and attenuated pathogenicity.

In late 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants have become highly diversified, and XBB is spreading rapidly around the world. Our phylogenetic analyses suggested that XBB emerged through the recombination of two cocirculating BA.2 lineages, BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1 (a progeny of BA.2.75), during the summer of 2022. XBB.1 is the variant most profoundly resistant to BA.2/5 breakthrough infection sera to date and is more fusogenic than BA.2.75. The recombination breakpoint is located in the receptor-binding domain of spike, and each region of the recombinant spike confers immune evasion and increases fusogenicity. We further provide the structural basis for the interaction between XBB.1 spike and human ACE2. Finally, the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB.1 in male hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75. Our multiscale investigation provides evidence suggesting that XBB is the first observed SARS-CoV-2 variant to increase its fitness through recombination rather than substitutions.

Soon after the emergence and global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineage BA.1, another Omicron lineage, BA.2, began outcompeting BA.1. The results of statistical analysis showed that the effective reproduction number of BA.2 is 1.4-fold higher than that of BA.1. Neutralization experiments revealed that immunity induced by COVID vaccines widely administered to human populations is not effective against BA.2, similar to BA.1, and that the antigenicity of BA.2 is notably different from that of BA.1. Cell culture experiments showed that the BA.2 spike confers higher replication efficacy in human nasal epithelial cells and is more efficient in mediating syncytia formation than the BA.1 spike. Furthermore, infection experiments using hamsters indicated that the BA.2 spike-bearing virus is more pathogenic than the BA.1 spike-bearing virus. Altogether, the results of our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 to global health is potentially higher than that of BA.1.

After the global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2, some BA.2 subvariants, including BA.2.9.1, BA.2.11, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5, emerged in multiple countries. Our statistical analysis showed that the effective reproduction numbers of these BA.2 subvariants are greater than that of the original BA.2. Neutralization experiments revealed that the immunity induced by BA.1/2 infections is less effective against BA.4/5. Cell culture experiments showed that BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/5 replicate more efficiently in human alveolar epithelial cells than BA.2, and particularly, BA.4/5 is more fusogenic than BA.2. We further provided the structure of the BA.4/5 spike receptor-binding domain that binds to human ACE2 and considered how the substitutions in the BA.4/5 spike play roles in ACE2 binding and immune evasion. Moreover, experiments using hamsters suggested that BA.4/5 is more pathogenic than BA.2. Our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 subvariants, particularly BA.4/5, to global health is greater than that of original BA.2.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant emerged in May 2022. BA.2.75 is a BA.2 descendant but is phylogenetically distinct from BA.5, the currently predominant BA.2 descendant. Here, we show that BA.2.75 has a greater effective reproduction number and different immunogenicity profile than BA.5. We determined the sensitivity of BA.2.75 to vaccinee and convalescent sera as well as a panel of clinically available antiviral drugs and antibodies. Antiviral drugs largely retained potency, but antibody sensitivity varied depending on several key BA.2.75-specific substitutions. The BA.2.75 spike exhibited a profoundly higher affinity for its human receptor, ACE2. Additionally, the fusogenicity, growth efficiency in human alveolar epithelial cells, and intrinsic pathogenicity in hamsters of BA.2.75 were greater than those of BA.2. Our multilevel investigations suggest that BA.2.75 acquired virological properties independent of BA.5, and the potential risk of BA.2.75 to global health is greater than that of BA.5.