Olivia Watchorn

BACKGROUND: Liver disease is within the top five causes of premature death in adults. Deaths caused by complications of cirrhosis continue to rise, whilst deaths related to other non-liver disease areas are declining. Portal hypertension is the primary sequelae of cirrhosis and is associated with the development of variceal haemorrhage, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and infection, collectively termed hepatic decompensation, which leads to hospitalisation and mortality. It remains uncertain whether administering a non-selective beta-blocker (NSBB), specifically carvedilol, at an earlier stage, i.e. when oesophageal varices are small, can prevent VH and reduce all-cause decompensation (ACD). METHODS/DESIGN: The BOPPP trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, placebo-controlled, triple-blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Patients aged 18 years or older with cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices that have never bled will be recruited, subject to exclusion criteria. The trial aims to enrol 740 patients across 55 hospitals in the UK. Patients are allocated randomly on a 1:1 ratio to receive either carvedilol 6.25 mg (a NSBB) or a matched placebo, once or twice daily, for 36 months, to attain adequate power to determine the effectiveness of carvedilol in preventing or reducing ACD. The primary outcome is the time to first decompensating event. It is a composite primary outcome made up of variceal haemorrhage (VH, new or worsening ascites, new or worsening hepatic encephalopathy (HE), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), hepatorenal syndrome, an increase in Child-Pugh grade by 1 grade or MELD score by 5 points, and liver-related mortality. Secondary outcomes include progression to medium or large oesophageal varices, development of gastric, duodenal, or ectopic varices, participant quality of life, healthcare costs and transplant-free survival. DISCUSSION: The BOPPP trial aims to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of carvedilol in patients with cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices to determine whether this non-selective beta-blocker can prevent or reduce hepatic decompensation. There is clinical equipoise on whether intervening in cirrhosis, at an earlier stage of portal hypertension, with NSBB therapy is beneficial. Should the trial yield a positive result, we anticipate that the administration and use of carvedilol will become widespread with pathways developed to standardise the administration of the medication in primary care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been approved by the National Health Service (NHS) Research Ethics Committee (REC) (reference number: 19/YH/0015). The results of the trial will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Participants will be informed of the results via the BOPPP website ( www.boppp-trial.org ) and partners in the British Liver Trust (BLT) organisation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EUDRACT reference number: 2018-002509-78. ISRCTN reference number: ISRCTN10324656. Registered on April 24 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Oesophageal cancer is associated with poor health outcomes. Upper GI (UGI) endoscopy is the gold standard for diagnosis but is associated with patient discomfort and low yield for cancer. We used a machine learning approach to create a model which predicted oesophageal cancer based on questionnaire responses. METHODS: We used data from 2 separate prospective cross-sectional studies: the Saliva to Predict rIsk of disease using Transcriptomics and epigenetics (SPIT) study and predicting RIsk of diSease using detailed Questionnaires (RISQ) study. We recruited patients from National Health Service (NHS) suspected cancer pathways as well as patients with known cancer. We identified patient characteristics and questionnaire responses which were most associated with the development of oesophageal cancer. Using the SPIT dataset, we trained seven different machine learning models, selecting the best area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to create our final model. We further applied a cost function to maximise cancer detection. We then independently validated the model using the RISQ dataset. RESULTS: 807 patients were included in model training and testing, split in a 70:30 ratio. 294 patients were included in model validation. The best model during training was regularised logistic regression using 17 features (median AUC: 0.81, interquartile range (IQR): 0.69-0.85). For testing and validation datasets, the model achieved an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61-0.81) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96) respectively. At a set cut off, our model achieved a sensitivity of 97.6% and specificity of 59.1%. We additionally piloted the model in 12 patients with gastric cancer; 9/12 (75%) of patients were correctly classified. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a risk stratification tool using a questionnaire approach. This could aid prioritising patients at high risk of having oesophageal cancer for endoscopy. Our tool could help address endoscopic backlogs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Salivary epigenetic biomarkers may detect esophageal cancer. Methods: A total of 256 saliva samples from esophageal adenocarcinoma patients and matched volunteers were analyzed with Illumina EPIC methylation arrays. Three datasets were created, using 64% for discovery, 16% for testing and 20% for validation. Modules of gene-based methylation probes were created using weighted gene coexpression network analysis. Module significance to disease and gene importance to module were determined and a random forest classifier generated using best-scoring gene-related epigenetic probes. A cost-sensitive wrapper algorithm maximized cancer diagnosis. Results: Using age, sex and seven probes, esophageal adenocarcinoma was detected with area under the curve of 0.72 in discovery, 0.73 in testing and 0.75 in validation datasets. Cancer sensitivity was 88% with specificity of 31%. Conclusion: We have demonstrated a potentially clinically viable classifier of esophageal cancer based on saliva methylation.